Tropical Storm Elsa is quickly headed toward Haiti, then Jamaica, and Cuba later this weekend before a potential track toward Florida and the Southeast U.S. with gusty winds and heavy rain.
As of the 5 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center, the Florida Keys, west to the Dry Tortugas is now under a Tropical Storm Watch.
This means that tropical storm conditions could arrive late Sunday into Monday morning in South Florida. South Florida and the Florida Keys can expect 2-4 inches of rain with locally heavier rainfall of up to 6 inches. This may cause some localized flooding.
According to Action News Jax, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has issued a state of emergency declaration covering Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough, Lee, Levy, Manatee, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Pasco, Pinellas, and Sarasota counties.
There will be some high tides and storm surge associated with Elsa’s movement by Sunday, and into Monday. A combination of storm surge and tides will cause normally dry areas to flood, and if the surge occurs during a high tide, water heights could be from one to two feet from Craig Key, Florida to the Dry Tortugas.
By Sunday, Tropical Storm Elsa will sweep through Jamaica, and then on to Cuba, on Sunday, and into Monday. In Cuba and the Cayman Islands, heavy rain and a storm surge are expected to arrive Sunday into Monday. These islands can expect 5 to 10 inches of rainfall and, in Cuba, a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet is possible.
And now comes the tricky part of the forecast. What will Elsa end up doing? It is hoped that Elsa will lose some of its intensity if it tracks over Cuba. Then, the big question will be how soon and how sharp a right-hand turn Elsa makes Monday as it reaches the edge of the Bermuda high?
According to Weather.com, there are still a number of tracks the storm could take, from moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, to near, or even over the Florida peninsula.
