A new model projects up to 16.5 percent of the population across eight countries will suffer from chronic kidney disease by 2032. This comes from the pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca using a model named IMPACT CKD.
Chronic kidney disease is a serious, progressive condition defined by decreased kidney function. Nearly 850 million people worldwide are affected by CKD,3 with the majority undiagnosed. The most common causes are diabetes, hypertension and glomerulonephritis.
The disease is associated with significant patient morbidity and an increased risk of cardiovascular events, such as heart failure, which drives premature death. In its most severe form, known as kidney failure, kidney damage and deterioration of kidney function have progressed to the point where dialysis or kidney transplantation are required.
These data have been presented to the 2024 ISN World Congress of Nephrology in Buenos Aires. The researchers highlight an urgent and growing global health crisis with profound economic and environmental implications.
The countries examined were U.S., Brazil, U.K., Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, China, and Australia. It is estimated that 125 million people across these countries will suffer from advanced kidney disease by 2032, marking a 25 percent increase since 2022 when the model began.
This carries societal implications, including with the economic toll of renal replacement therapy, which requires dialysis and transplant. The total figure is anticipated to reach approximately $186 billion.
On another measure, the dialysis requirements are expected to surge by over 75 percent, contributing significantly to healthcare’s carbon footprint (equivalent to adding approximately 17.3 million cars’ worth of carbon dioxide emissions).
Ruud Dobber at AstraZeneca summarises the implications of the research, stating: “Our modelling emphasises the enormous impact chronic kidney disease could have on patients, economies and the environment.”
Yet there is also hope, which Donner expresses as: “But this future is not inevitable. At AstraZeneca, we are committed to working with global policy makers to reduce the world-wide impact of end-stage CKD and drive earlier diagnosis and treatment to slow or halt progression of disease.”
