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Economist: Prairie Drought Will Have Little Effect On Consumer Prices

REGINA, Saskatchewan (AP) — Drought across most of Saskatchewan has left crops stunted and unable to recover even if rain does fall, but that doesn’t mean consumers will notice any jumps in the price of flour or cooking oil on grocery store shelves.

“What’s important to note is that these crops are traded on the world market and they’re produced all over the world,” says Richard Gray, head of the department of agricultural economics at the University of Saskatchewan.

“Canadian production is I think under four per cent of the world grain production … so a crop failure here doesn’t reduce world supplies all that much.”

Gray said grain and oilseed prices may rise 10 to 15 per cent, but that even if they quadrupled, the impact on the consumer would be negligible.

“Even if the price of wheat went up fourfold, you wouldn’t notice it in the price of doughnuts,” he said Tuesday.

At least three rural municipalities in Saskatchewan have declared themselves disaster areas because of the drought conditions.

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