Godbole’s analysis
Omkar Gobole wrote an analysis of the movement of bitcoin (BTC) earlier today on CoinDesk. It was last updated at 12:54 UTC.
Bitcoin’s price was rising during his period of analysis to as high as $10,200 but Godbole argues that the path of least resistance is still downwards.
BTC had found bids just below the 100-day moving average(MA) support at $9,900 last Wednesday and rebounded to a high so far of $10,255 earlier today. Investors could see this as a prelude to a much higher level. On August 15 BTC recovered from a similar below 100-day moving average support and this was followed by highs above $10,900 on August 20 a thousand dollar rally.
Chart analysis
The hourly chart show the jump in price was accompanied by low volumes. The chart shows that buying pressure remained weak as BTC prices rose from $9,755 to $10,255. A low volume bounce is often short-lived.
Bitcoin has also dived out of a rising wedge. This is a bearish reversal pattern and indicates the corrective jump from $9,755 has ended.
According to technical theory the price observed at the beginning of a rising wedge formation becomes the minimum downside target once a breakdown is confirmed. Hence, there could be a drop down to the $9,755 level.
There could be a rally to from $10,550 to $10,600 if prices break above the wedge’s high of $10,255 if this is accompanied by decent volumes. However, Godbole claims that the situation is still bearish as a prices remain below $10,956.
Daily and 4-hour charts
On August 15 BTC’s bounce from the 100-day MA support ended with a lower high at $10,956 a bearish sign. In the short term the bulls need to surpass the $10,956 level. The case for a drop to $9,457 will remain as long as prices remain below the $10,807 level.
3-day chart
On the three days up to Aug. 20 bitcoin created a bearish outside bar candlestick pattern. The bearish outside bar appears when a specific period’s price range engulfs the previous period’s high and low. The candlestick pattern represents the continuing sell off from the high of $12,325 reached during the first week of August.
The probability of bitcoin’s price falling to the recent low of $9,467 appears high. As of Godbole’s posting, BTC was trading at $10,140 on Bitstamp making a gain of about 1.5 percent over 24 hours.
Present situation
Bitcoin opened at $10,101 and has reached a high so far of $10,450 according to CoinDesk data. The low has been just above $10,000 at 10,034. At 18:15 Central Daylight Time the price was still at $10,394 a rise of about 2.9 percent during the 24 hours. So far there is no sign of the dropping back that Godbole sees. The top twenty altcoin market is mixed but with the majority being positive. The present price of bitcoin and the top altcoins can be found here.
