Godbole’s analysis
On bad news about bitcoin (BTC) one would expect the price to decline but the opposite is happening. On Wednesday it was announced that 7 thousand bitcoins worth about $40 million were stolen from the large Binance exchange yet bitcoin is starting the weekend with a big rally setting new highs.
Earlier today Omkar Godbole published an analysis of the price movements of bitcoin on CoinDesk. The article was last updated at 10:37 UTC.
Bitcoin jumped to $6,964 at 06:00 UTC this morning on Bitstamp. This is BTC’s highest price since back on Sept. 5, 2018. Bitcoin has found acceptance above the 200-week moving average (MA) which is at present $6,500. This is the fourth straight day that BTC has set a multi-month high. BTC has rallied more than 70 percent in 5 and a half weeks.
With the sharp rally the 100-day MA price has moved above the 200-day MA. This is the first bullish crossover between the two moving averages since way back in July of 2015. This development confirms the long-term bearish-to-bullish change that is also shown by several technical indicators. This includes a golden crossover that has happened over the last few weeks. The moving average changes are lagging indicators and have limited predictive abilities. However, after the July 2015 crossover there was a 2.5 year bull run.
Chart analysis
The 100-day MA has crossed the 200-day MA from below. This move comes just two weeks after the confirmation of a golden crossover of the 50-day MA and the 200-day MA. After the 100-day and 200-day MA’s bull cross on July 26 , 2015 remained for 33 months the price of bitcoin went up 8,000 percent to about $20,000. It highest price ever.
The short term as well as long term outlook is bullish. The 30-day MA is trending upward creating higher higher highs and higher lows a bullish pattern. The next resistance level is above $7,000 at $7,400.
There could be a pullback
The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is reporting extreme overbought conditions The gains could not be sustainable in the short run. In the July 2015 bull run there was also a pullback of four weeks before a strong bid returned. However, there is strong support at $5,463 that makes it unlikely to see any deeper pullback if any happen at all. When Godbole’s article went ot press BTC was trading at $6,800 a 7 percent gain over 24 hours.
Present situation
24 hours ago BTC opened at $6,317. The low has been $6,240 but the high leaped up to $6,944. Even at 11:05 Central Daylight Time the price was still $6,902 up $585 from the open or over 9 percent according to BiitCoin Data. Bitcoin Data are based on an average of several exchanges and so can differ from that of a single exchange. The top twenty altcoins are also all up, some even in the double digits in terms of percentage. The present price of BTC and the other top twenty coins can be found here.
UPDATE
At 18:35 Central Daylight Time May 11 BTC hit a high of $7,382 according to CoinDesk data. It has dropped back a bit since.
