CoinDesk analysis
Omkar Godbole has a recent analysis of bitcoin’s price movements at CoinDesk last updated at 13:12 UTC today, March 29. Godbole notes that bitcoin has been slowly rising in price. He claims a long-term lagging indicator is showing signs that are similar to those that happened before the 2015 bull run.
On Bitstamp exchange, BTC had risen to $4,100 at 10:30 UTC. This was its highest level since February 24, and validated a bullish indicating higher low which was established along the 30-day moving average (MA) support level that was created earlier this week.
Prices could rise further towards the February high of $4,190 within the next few days. As Godbole’s article went to press BTC was trading at $4,075 or half a percentage gain up within the last 24 hours. The short term prospects for bitcoin have improved with the move up but a longer term bullish reversal above $4,236 still remains to be achieved.
A convincing break above that level could happen within the next few months, as indicate by historical data related to BTC’s 3-day chart 200-day moving average. That average is based on two-year old data and tends to lag the price by more than a year.
For example, BTC’s price reached a record peak around $20,000 in December of 2017 and has been having lower highs ever since. However, the 200-day moving average continued to go up indicating a bullish setup during 2018 but turned flat this months which is three months after the sell-off ceased near $3,100. A similar pattern is observable in the month leading up to the long-term bullish reversal in October of 2015.
Chart analysis
The 200-candle MA continued downward through the December 2013 right to January 2015 bear market. It turned flat in March through April 2015. This was three months after the sell-off ended at a price of $152. BTC traded mostly in the $200 to $300 range for the next six months but then the bull run began in October of 2015. The MA had begun dropping three months before the bull breakout started.
If the past history of bitcoin’s price is a good guide then BTC could trade during the next few months within the $3,100 to $4,300 but could pick up a strong bid and move up as the key MA starts drifting lower.
Daily and 4-hour charts
The four-hour chart shows that BTC’s break above the $4,055 March 21 high was accompanied by a bull flag breakout, a bullish continuation pattern. Also, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) also shows bullish conditions with an average reading that is above 50. The February high of $4,190 could soon be reached. If prices close above that level this weekend on Sunday this would confirm that there has been a bullish reversal. However, should prices close below $4,055 today then the case for a short term bullish trend would be weakened.
Present situation
24 hours ago BTC opened on CoinDesk at $4,015. Since then the high has been $4,128 and the low still above the $4,000 level at $4,009. CoinDesk data are an average from several different exchanges and thus can differ from that of single exchanges such as Bitstamp. At 20:05 Central Daylight Time BTC was trading at $4,112 well above the $4,055 mentioned by Godbole. The short term bullish tendency appears to be still in place. BTC rose about 2.4 percent over the last 24 hours and is now close to one hundred dollars above the open. The present price of bitcoin can be found here.
