However, City’s poor away form — they’ve scored two league goals away from the Etihad since their 1-0 win over Crystal Palace in September — combined with Watford’s successful start to the season, suggests a tight encounter at Vicarage Road. Watford’s difficult festive period has witnessed Quique Sanchez Flores’ men draw at Chelsea, whilst suffering a narrow loss to Spurs two days later.
City will still be without Vincent Kompany, so Eliaquim Mangala and Nicolas Otamendi will encounter a physical battle against the Watford forwards. Troy Deeney and Odion Ighalo have combined for 20 of Watford’s 22 goals this season, highlighting the threat the duo poses against City’s back-line.
Bacary Sagna and Aleksandar Kolarov will start at full-back, with the former serving as the catalyst for Raheem Sterling’s best chances at Leicester last week. Both Deeney and Ighalo are great with their back to goal, and often aim to link amongst each other, but could look to target the full-backs when attacking crosses from wide areas. Nevertheless, Mangala and Otamendi’s proactive defending will see the City centre-backs quickly close down the strikers but they’re guilty of committing reckless across the pitch, which could prove costly.
Deeney will aim to link play with his three attacking teammates and nod balls to Ighalo who will play off the shoulder of the City defence. Jose Jurado will drift infield from the left to receive possession and attempt to play passes behind the City defence, while Almen Abdi is a diligent worker on the opposite flank that also takes up similar positions.
Watford represents one of the successful teams this season that adopt a basic 4-4-2 based on organization and ensuring their three bands remain compact out of possession. It’s unlikely Watford will replicate Leicester’s approach by moving to a 4-5-1 to possibly include an additional midfielder in Valon Behrami, though is energy would be beneficial, here.
“The difference [from the last time they played City] is that we have grown a lot in the last four months,” Sanchez told Watford’s official website ahead of Saturday’s contest at Vicarage Road.
“We now want more, we are not used to losing, when we lose against Tottenham in the last minute and draw with Chelsea in a tough match, we want more, we are not happy with those situations, it is very good.”
Ighalo and Deeney will drop into midfield to press and cut off passing lanes for Fernandinho and Yaya Toure, while the midfield band led by Etienne Capoue and Ben Watson will sit a few yards ahead of the back four to break up play and limit the opposition’s activity between the lines. Fernandinho and Toure have failed to dictate matches from deep this season, but they’ll be wary of breaking forward as well considering Watford’s threat on the counter.
Pellegrini is likely to field the same attacking trio that played to scoreless draw at Leicester, as Watson and Capoue will encounter a difficult challenge considering Kevin De Bruyne and David Silva will drift into these positions. City could turn to a natural winger in Jesus Navas for additional width to pull the hosts out of position, but the Spaniard’s inconsistent productivity may see Pellegrini reluctant to alter his preferred front four.
It’s difficult to see City not scoring here, however, despite Silva and Sergio Aguero struggling to rediscover their best form. Craig Cathcart and Miguel Britos represent a fragile centre-back duo that tend to make several mistakes when exposed, and they’ll be susceptible to Aguero’s sharp turns and willingness to break with speed behind the defence.
Nathan Ake’s suspension will see either Jose Holebas or Ikechi Anya start at left-back, which could see Pellegrini start Sterling on the right to avoid a physical battle with right-back Allan Nyom. Holebas is likely to start following the threat he offered at Stamford Bridge with his superb crosses at Stamford Bridge, whereas Anya’s poor form won’t be risked against City’s dangerous attacking quartet.
“We must improve away,” Pellegrini said. “It was good to keep a clean sheet at Leicester but for me the best thing from that game was to continue playing the same way we did in the last two games.
“Maybe we have to finish our chances a little bit better and improve the amount of offensive moments we have. But I think we are in the correct way.”
Pellegrini’s men face a similar challenge that provided issues Monday night as the pattern of the match will be identical. City will dominate possession for lengthy spells, with Watford sitting deep and aiming to quickly break forward through their direct wingers and simple long balls to the combative forwards.
Although City’s attack is favoured to finally flourish against a defence that may struggle to cope with their movement, Flores’ swift direct attacking is the formula that’s punished the away side on multiple occasions this season. If City intend on mounting legitimate title challenge in the second half of the season, they must find balance to revive their road woes at Vicarage Road.
