After winning 87 games in 2014 and falling just short of a Wild Card birth, the Seattle Mariners entered 2015 as a team expected to contend in a competitive American League West. What happened however was a 76-win season thanks in large part to down seasons from their two franchise players in Robinson Cano and Felix Hernandez.
The rest of the Mariners pitching staff as a whole also didn’t quite meet expectations as Hisashi Iwakuma, Taijuan Walker and James Paxton all had trouble staying healthy and the bullpen went from the best in the game (2.59 ERA ranked first in all of baseball in 2014) to one of the worst (4.15 ERA ranked 25th last season).
The only good that came from the Mariners last season were Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager. Cruz proved to be the best offseason acquisition of any team during the offseason. After leading the league in home runs with 40 while with the Baltimore Orioles in 2014, Cruz hit 44 more with a .302 average and a .936 OPS despite playing his home games in the spacious Safeco field.
Seager continued to solidify himself as one of the game’s best third basemen as he posted career highs in home runs (26), doubles (37) and runs (85) while also striking out less than 100 times (98) for the first time in a full season in his major league career.
Why they will contend
For a starting pitcher, a season with 18 wins versus nine losses along with 201 innings, 190 stikeouts, a 3.53 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP is a fantastic season. For Felix Hernandez, it is a down season. None of those numbers tell me his best days are behind him. The previous year he led the AL in both ERA (2.14) and WHIP (0.92). More run support and a better bullpen should result in Hernandez returning to his usual self.
Cano also put up respectable numbers (.287/.334/.446) but they were a far cry from his career line (.317/.356/.494). He also finished the season strong posting a line of .331/.387/.540 in the second half while also hitting 15 of his 21 home runs during that stretch. That alone is a pretty good reason to believe the six-time all-star will be fine in 2016.
The Mariners began making changes before the end of last season with a new general manager in Jerry Dipoto. Dipoto’s first move was relieving manager Lloyd McClendon of his duties and bringing in Scott Servais. To help make Servais’ job easier, Dipoto added Nori Aoki and Adam Lind, two of baseball’s most underrated and consistent performers. He also resigned Hisashi Iwakuma and brought in Joaquin Benoit, two more extremely underrated, consistent performers.
The newcomers that will take this team to the playoffs have to be Nate Karns, Wade Miley and Steve Cishak. All three men have shown the ability to be productive at points in their careers but enter this season with something to prove. If Karns and Miley pitch well it takes away the pressure the team put on the development of Walker and Paxton last season. The bullpen lost Carson Smith and Danny Farquhar in the offseason so Cishak must show he can close so that Benoit can remain in his setup role where he has always excelled.
Why they won’t contend
Beyond Benoit and Cishak, the entire Mariners bullpen is a question mark. Joel Peralta is not what he once was. Left-handers Mike Montgomery and Videl Nuno are failed starters who have yet to prove they can be relied upon as relievers. Other potential relief arms in Ryan Cook and Charlie Furbush have been strong in the past but enter the season injured.
In the rotation, the Mariners have done well in adding options as they have as many as eight arms for five spots. But the team’s two best pitchers behind Hernandez in Iwakuma and Walker have to stay healthy. If not, Servais’ job as a first time manager will become a lot harder than he would like it to be.
The outfield for the Mariners are full of platoon players. Seth Smith, Leonys Martin, Franklin Gutierrez all will receive playing time and none of which are locks to produce. Gutierrez may be the most interesting of the bunch after hitting 15 home runs in just 59 games last season but as it stands, will be seeing the least amount of time of the three.
There also isn’t much expectation offensively at catcher and shortstop. The signing of Chris Iannetta has pushed the powerful but defensively challenged Mike Zunino to the minors. Ketel Marte enjoyed a rather productive stint in the majors last season (.284/.351/.402 in 57 games) but was never considered a top prospect despite some solid minor league numbers.
The verdict: Contender
The Mariners did well to improve themselves offensively but the pitching they acquired are not sure things. As we speak they are still looking around the league for relief help so that leads me to believe they will be more proactive if they struggle. The potential their top three in the starting rotation can compete with anyone in the division if they remain healthy. Couple that with a lineup that is now deeper than in years past and I say the Mariners contend for a playoff spot in 2016.
