The global base oil market is projected to grow from USD 28.7 billion in 2020 to USD 36.7 billion by 2025, at a CAGR of 5.0% from 2020 to 2025. The growing demand for high-grade oils in the automotive industry is driving the base oil industry growth.
The agreements, as well as plant expansions made by many prominent players in the base oil industry, are one of the key factors. The lucrative market opportunities in the regions of Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC), as well as the rising demand for renewable energy, are expected to boost the base oil market.
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The pandemic is estimated to have huge impact on the end-use industries of base oil, which is expected to reflect during the forecast period, especially in the year 2020-2021. The various impact of COVID-19 are as follows:
- Impact on automotive industry: The demand for cars and commercial vehicles is expected to see decline throughout 2020 and 2021. More than 80% of automobile production in North America has come to a halt due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Europe and Asia Pacific are witnessing a similar situation. Companies such as Ford, General Motors, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, Honda, and Tesla have stopped production temporarily. Even if these companies resume production after the pandemic subsides, economic instability and reduction in the purchasing power of consumers will have an adverse effect on the automotive industry.
- Impact on industrial oil: The demand for industrial oil is highly dependent on factors such as economic health and the recovery of the manufacturing sector, among others. The industrial sector has changed dramatically since December 2019 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which has triggered extreme economic uncertainty. Early indications of global economic fallout are visible in countries severely affected by the contagion. For instance, industrial production, retail sales, and investments dropped dramatically in January and March thereby reducing the demand for industrial oil.
- Impact on metalworking fluid: The impact of COVID-19 on the metalworking fluid is projected to vary in different regions across the world. It is due to the fact that the demand for metalworking fluid depends on the demand from various end-use industries such as electronics, aerospace, logistics, and manufacturing. However, owing to supply chain disruptions, logistics slowdowns, unavailability of the workforce, and reduced demand have stalled industrial activity globally and impacted many industries—including all end-use industries of metalworking fluids.
- Impact on Hydraulic oils: Hydraulic oils are commonly used in industrial applications, mostly as heat and power transferring medium. The demand for hydraulic oil is highly dependent on its end users as it is closely associated with the growth of various industries, such as construction, metals & mining, and manufacturing.
- Impact on Grease: The demand for grease depends on the consumption of grease products from its end-use industries, which include automotive and manufacturing. The automotive industry has seen the impact of the coronavirus crisis evolve from a supply shock to a global demand shock. Automotive sales are expected to drop by 14-22% in 2020 across China, the US, and Europe due to a mismatch of supply and demand. Additionally, with production activities at an all-time low across the globe, spurred by the lack of demand from the consumer end, the production of grease is also likely to be affected.
Among regions, the Asia Pacific base oil market is projected to register the highest CAGR from 2019 to 2024. India, China, Indonesia, and Japan are key countries contributing to the increased demand for lubricants, and in effect base oil, in this region. Increasing GDP led by the rising industrial activities in Asia Pacific has increased the demand for base oil in the region. The growth of transportation, power generation, mining, and other sectors is also responsible for the rise in demand for base oil in the Asia Pacific region.
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