New data has emerged revealing population trends across all US states and projecting how large each state’s population could become by the year 2100.
Population projections are useful for understanding future demographic shifts and their wide-ranging implications. As urbanisation accelerates and demographic trends evolve, these projections inform economic planning, political strategies, and social services.
Karl Graham, a demographic expert at Click Storage, has explained to Digital Journal about the data trends.
“The data we have now shapes our infrastructure, healthcare, and housing policies for the future,” says Graham. “By examining population trends, we can anticipate and plan for the changes expected to come.”
The methodology estimates each U.S. state’s population in 2100 using current population data and historical growth rates from the past 15 years. It assumes a constant growth rate, acknowledging limitations due to not accounting for fluctuations in birth and death rates or net migration. While basic, this framework highlights the importance of understanding its assumptions and potential inaccuracies.
Based on current trends, these are the top ten states expected to be the most populated in 2100, along with their current populations and estimated populations:
RANK | State | Current Population(2024) | Estimated population(2100) |
1 | Texas | 30,976,754 | 97,840,519 |
2 | Florida | 22,975,931 | 63,029,910 |
3 | California | 38,889,770 | 53,376,507 |
4 | North Carolina | 10,975,017 | 23,681,944 |
5 | Georgia | 11,145,304 | 23,681,282 |
6 | New York | 19,469,232 | 21,382,259 |
7 | Washington | 7,841,283 | 18,976,768 |
8 | Arizona | 7,497,004 | 17,586,556 |
9 | Virginia | 8,752,297 | 15,029,698 |
10 | Colorado | 5,914,181 | 15,024,451 |
Top 5 States Analysis
Texas
Texas is projected to witness the most significant population surge, reaching nearly 98 million by 2100. With a strong annual growth rate of 1.3 percent, The Lone Star State benefits from substantial net migration, robust birth rates, and an expanding economy. Graham notes: “Texas’ economic attractiveness, combined with its vast expanses of land and relatively lower cost of living, will continue to draw people in.”
Florida
The Sunshine State’s population is expected to triple, driven by a favorable climate, booming tourism industry, and retiree influx. Its annual growth rate of 1.7 percent and significant net migration underscore its growing appeal. “Florida’s population growth is a testament to its enduring allure as a retirement haven and its expanding job market,” Graham adds.
California
Despite a modest decline of -0.2 percent in 2023, California’s population is still projected to grow due to its sheer size and economic power. Challenges such as high living costs and net out-migration are mitigated by its diverse economy and continued birth rates. “The Golden State remains a global hub for technology and entertainment, which will sustain its growth,” Graham explains.
North Carolina
The Tar Heel State is set to more than double its population by 2100. With a 1.2 percent annual growth rate and favorable net migration, the state’s affordable living and growing tech and research sectors are key drivers. Graham highlights, “North Carolina’s rise as a tech and education center makes it a magnet for young professionals.”
Georgia
Georgia mirrors North Carolina’s trajectory with the population doubling by 2100, thanks to a 1.1 percent annual growth rate. Atlanta’s status as a transportation and business hub, coupled with affordable living, boosts the state’s appeal. “The Peach State’s strategic location and economic diversity will continue to attract businesses and residents,” Graham notes.
What Does The Future Hold?
Fueled by net migration and birth rates, Sun Belt states like Texas and Florida are on track for explosive population growth. “To navigate this surge, proactive policy-making is essential,” Graham warns. “Infrastructure needs significant investment for sustainable urban development, while healthcare must adapt to increasing and aging populations with specialized facilities and workforce training.”
Economically speaking, these states could also become powerhouses by attracting investment and job creation in key sectors, but ultimately, sustainability is crucial, requiring innovative land use, waste management, and renewable energy policies. Technology, through smart city initiatives and healthcare advancements, will streamline population management. Education investment is key to long-term prosperity, ensuring a skilled workforce by expanding facilities and adapting curriculum to future job demands. Here’s to the year 2100!
