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US rental sector: The ups, the downs, and the inbetweens

Business-friendly environments has consistently positioned selected states as magnets for renters.

Several popular cities see market tension between Airbnb and longterm rentals for residents
Several popular cities see market tension between Airbnb and longterm rentals for residents - Copyright GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP/File SCOTT OLSON
Several popular cities see market tension between Airbnb and longterm rentals for residents - Copyright GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP/File SCOTT OLSON

The relocation boom in the U.S. may well be running out of steam. This comes after figures reveal that interstate migration has fallen to a 10-year low in 2024. This is according to StorageCafe’s analysis of the latest U.S. Census Bureau data.

In particular, the findings indicate that the so-called ‘Sun Belt’ states, the ones that notably that defined the post-pandemic relocation wave, are appearing to lose ground. This comes as affordability erodes in markets, especially for properties that once sold themselves on cost.

At the same time, people’s motivations for moving are changing. For the first time in years, getting closer to family has overtaken jobs and cost of living as the top reason to relocate — a sign that caution is starting to outweigh opportunity-driven moves.

Shifting data

While the apparent ‘Sun Belt’ gains are cooling, Nevada is not. Texas and Florida still rank #1 and #2, but their net inflows have been cut in half as affordability declines. Home prices are up 124% in Texas and 144% in Florida over the past decade. Nevada, however, is bucking the trend: net in-migration more than doubled (+132% YoY), fueled by a strong California-to-Nevada relocation corridor. Home values continue to work in Nevada’s favor, remaining roughly 40% lower than in California.

Another trend places the Midwest is back on the map. Ohio broke into the national top 10 (~+29K net after a losing 2023), while Michigan (#12) returned to net gains and Wisconsin (#14) held steady. Migration corridors tell the story: Florida to Ohio (homes ~40% cheaper); Florida and California to Michigan (~36% and ~67% cheaper, respectively); and Minnesota and Illinois to Wisconsin (home prices ~14% lower than Minnesota, rents ~14% lower than Illinois).

The unlikeliest migration magnet?

Tiny, cold, and not exactly cheap, Vermont is adding residents faster than Texas on a per-capita basis (20+ net newcomers per 1,000 residents, the highest rate in the country). Notably, 86% of new arrivals hold a bachelor’s degree or higher. North Dakota and Wyoming are also punching above their weight, each posting 9+ net newcomers per 1,000 residents.

A related finding indicates that New England is emerging as a surprising homebuyer magnet. In New Hampshire, 57% of new arrivals purchase a home within their first year, the highest conversion rate in the country. Maine follows at 56%. These aren’t temporary transplants testing the waters; they’re households putting down roots, drawn by lifestyle, stability, and in New Hampshire’s case, no state income tax and proximity to Boston.

Demographic ups and downs

Interstate mobility is not evenly distributed across the population but concentrated among specific age and education groups.

Gen Z just dethroned Millennials as America’s most mobile generation.  For the first time ever, 2.2 million Gen Zers crossed state lines in 2024, surpassing 2 millions Millennials. Less anchored by mortgages or children, they’re chasing both affordability and opportunity. Their top destinations include South Carolina, Missouri and Washington, D.C.

In particular, this flexibility shows up clearly in where they are choosing to go. The top destinations for net Gen Z migration are South Carolina, Missouri and the District of Columbia, showing that Gen Zers are driven both by affordability and ambition. South Carolina and Missouri offer lower housing costs and growing regional job markets, giving young adults room to establish themselves financially. At the same time, the District of Columbia continues to attract Gen Z movers drawn to policy, media and professional services careers that benefit from proximity and networking.

Look to the coast

Coastal outflows persist, but the exodus is easing. California marked its 10th consecutive year of net domestic losses, shedding 263,000 residents in 2024. New York lost another 129,000, but its net loss narrowed sharply year over year. Together, the two states shed nearly 400,000 residents in a single year.

Takeaway trend

The main takeaway from the report is how the migration slowdown is hitting self storage pricing in Sun Belt states. Street rates fell ~0.9% in Texas and around 1.5% in Florida, Arizona, and Georgia as fewer inbound movers meant softer demand. Nevada, where migration surged, is the exception — rates held flat as strong inflows absorbed available supply.

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Written By

Dr. Tim Sandle is Digital Journal's Editor-at-Large for science news. Tim specializes in science, technology, environmental, business, and health journalism. He is additionally a practising microbiologist; and an author. He is also interested in history, politics and current affairs.

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