There are two tropical waves in the Atlantic this week, and two of them have a medium chance of tropical development in the next 2 to 5 days, the National Hurricane Center said Sunday.
One is a somewhat elongated area of low pressure several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands moving to the west-northwest at about 10 to15 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for additional development over the next few days.
In the forecast, the system will reach the Lesser Antilles late on Monday, and then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday. The system will could produce pockets of heavy rain for the islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this week. The chance of strengthening into a tropical cyclone within the next five days is about 50 percent.
Another low-pressure area is about halfway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles, and it is forecast to head west or west-southwest before moving more quickly west by midweek.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system have actually diminished as of Sunday morning, although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive to further development.
A tropical depression may form by the middle of the week as this system takes advantage of warm waters and relatively low upper-level wind shear. The NHC is giving this system a 40 percent chance of further development.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said last week that there are expected to be 15 to 21 named storms this season, slightly up from the 13 to 20 storms predicted before the season began.
Low wind shear, active African monsoons, and a possible La Niña phenomenon led to the increase, according to government meteorologists.
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