MENLO PARK, Calif. — On the eve of oral arguments before the U.S. Supreme Court, a new poll conducted by Knowledge Networks, shows that the public is losing its patience with the dispute over the Presidential election in Florida. About half believe that George W. Bush should receive Florida’s electoral votes, but there is unlikely to be any
simple way to resolve the dispute without leaving large number of voters
dissatisfied with the outcome. In particular, both Bush and Gore voters will
consider the election “stolen” if their candidate loses. The U.S. Supreme
Court is the only institution trusted by a majority — in fact, just a bare
majority — to resolve the dispute.
The public is paying very close attention to what is happening. About four
in ten of those surveyed said that they are paying “a lot of attention” and
only 14% are paying “not much attention.” However, there is evidence that
their patience is wearing thin: 59% say that they were interested, but are
now “ready for it to be decided.”
When asked exactly how long we should allow for the election outcome to be
decided, the most prevalent answer given by about four in ten Americans was
“immediately.” While one third are willing to wait one to two weeks, only one
quarter are willing to wait more than two weeks. Not surprisingly, Gore voters
are willing to be quite a bit more patient that Bush voters; 58% of Bush
voters want an immediate resolution, compared to only 19% of Gore voters. A
full one quarter of Gore voters are willing to wait four or more weeks — past
the December 18 Constitutional deadline for a meeting of the Electoral College.
Knowledge Networks asked whom the public would trust to resolve the
dispute. The U.S. Supreme Court was the only institution to command the trust
of a majority, albeit a bare majority of 51%. Florida Secretary of State
Katherine Harris was next most trusted at 27%, although that opinion comes
almost entirely from Bush voters (only 4% of Gore voters trust her). The
Florida Supreme Court was trusted by 20% of the public to decide who won
Florida’s 25 electoral votes.
The poll results indicate little support for an intervention by the
Florida legislature. Yesterday a special committee of the legislature voted to
call a special session to intervene in the dispute. However, according to the
poll, the Florida legislature is only trusted by 9% of the public to decide
the outcome — the lowest rating of any group rated in the poll.
Even the U.S. Supreme Court may have trouble maintaining its legitimacy if
it tries to resolve the dispute. Over three-fourths (77%) of those who thought
Bush won the most votes in Florida would consider the election “stolen” if
Gore wins. About the same proportion (75%) of those who think Gore won the
most votes would consider the election “stolen” if Bush wins. There is no
resolution that won’t leave many voters with the impression that the winning
candidate stole the election.
So far, it appears that Bush is winning the battle of public opinion,
though not by a large margin. Of those surveyed, just under one half think
Bush won the most votes in Florida, one quarter think Gore won the most votes,
and the remaining quarter are undecided. Only one in four of those surveyed
think that the manual recounts were conducted fairly in Florida, and 38% agree
with the Bush campaign that the manual recounts were unfair. The remaining
38% are unsure.
There is, of course, a deep partisan division on these points with Bush
voters overwhelmingly convinced that Bush won the most votes and that the
manual recounts were unfair. There is, however, a surprising amount of
ambivalence among Gore voters about what happened. About one third of Gore
voters are unsure who won the most votes in Florida (compared to only 8% of
Bush voters) and 16% even believe that Bush won the most votes there.
Similarly, a majority of Gore voters either believe that the manual recounts
were unfair (27%) or are unsure if they were fair (34%).
Few Americans support a lawsuit by either candidate. About half think
Al Gore should drop his lawsuit contesting the outcome. Similarly, if Gore
were to be declared the winner, only 38% would support Bush contesting this
result in the courts.
Gore’s actions do not seem to be winning him much support among the
public. When asked how they would rate Gore’s conduct since the election,
about half rate his actions negatively, while 27% rate them positively. Bush’s
conduct since the election is rated somewhat better: 36% felt his conduct was
positive, while 35% saw his conduct as negative.
The results were based on a national probability sample of
717 persons, 18 years and older, conducted November 27-30, 2000. The sample was conducted using households selected at random and provided with free WebTV and Internet access by Knowledge Networks. The margin of error based on a sample of this size is plus or minus 4 percent. In addition to sampling error,
question wording and non-response can introduce additional error or bias.
