Scientists led by the University of Oxford and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, Washington, have produced a fine-scale global map showing when and where the Zika virus is likely to spread. The research also resulted in a separate range map for the primary vector of the virus, the Aedes aegypti mosquito.
The maps were made after identifying areas of the world with similar environmental and socioeconomic conditions where the Zika virus has already been reported. The scientists looked at weather conditions, such as rainfall amounts, and land cover. They also took into account temperature-based incubation periods for the mosquito vector, reports NBC News.
“We have comprehensively assembled all the data for Zika occurrence in humans, displayed it as a map, and combined it with detailed predictions of where the virus could spread next,” says lead author Janey Messina from the University of Oxford.
Science News Online adds that Messina explained that the map reveals priority regions, and will allow authorities to plan intervention tactics for vector control and aid in identifying those areas needing more concentrated surveillance.
The CDC has already produced a map showing the potential range for two mosquito vectors, Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. However, the map does not include information on where the mosquitoes could spread, nor does it include the latest data on the Zika virus.
The Daily Mail points out there are currently over 1,000 Zika-related cases of microcephaly in Brazil, alone, and almost 5,000 suspected cases. The new maps show that over five million births will occur in the Americas alone over the next year in areas where the risk of Zika infection is the highest.
“Globally, we predict that over 2.17 billion people live in areas that are environmentally suitable for Zika virus transmission,” the study reads. “Although Zika virus has yet to be reported in the USA, a large portion of the southeast region of the country, including much of Texas through to Florida, is also highly suitable for transmission.”
Many experts believe the progression of the Zika virus will slow down as people become immune to the disease, just like people in Africa have become immune. Africa is where the Zika virus was first discovered in 1947. It is assumed that the incidence of Zika infections in Africa is due to the population having immunity to the virus.
This study, “Mapping global environmental suitability for Zika virus” was published in the journal ELife on April 19, 2016.
