Tom Matthews and R. L. Wilby, with the Department of Geography and Environment, Loughborough University, in Loughborough, UK, and C. Murphy, with the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, Department of Geography, Maynooth University, in Maynooth, Ireland published a research paper in the journal, Nature Climate Change last week.
The researchers wondered what would happen if a tropical cyclone hit, with massive blackouts – was followed by extreme heat? It was the possibility of this so-called “grey-swan event” occurring that brought to mind the latest extreme heatwave in Europe, the UK, and North America.
These heatwaves, while extreme at maximum temperatures of 35°C (95 degrees Fahrenheit) or more are hot for people living in the UK, however, almost 80 percent of the rest of the world’s population is used to these temperatures. When France hit 46 degrees C (114 degrees F) last week, that was extreme.
Even the heat in France didn’t live up to the 50 degrees C (122 degrees F) temperature reached in India earlier this summer, the 54°C (129.2 degrees F) confirmed for both Pakistan (in 2017) and Kuwait (in 2016). And while it may be true that people living in hotter climates are better at coping with extreme temperatures, heat does kill.
We have to keep in mind that people in most countries in the Northern Hemisphere while undergoing extreme heat, have access to air-conditioning, access to water fountains and other means to stay cool. Of course, if the electricity goes off, that’s another story.
What about less fortunate communities?
While you’re sitting inside your living room with the air-conditioning running full blast today, give a thought to the millions of less fortunate people around the world – like those in South Asia and the Persian Gulf. Even though the human body has remarkable thermal efficiencies, quite often, it is operating at its limits.
Thermal efficiencies has to do with thermoregulation and acclimatization – two core components of the human body’s coping mechanism for withstanding variations in environmental heat exposure. It is not a new concept and has been around for quite some time. But the concept has taken on greater importance with the climate crisis and the need to halt global warming to less than two degrees Celsius. Basically, as the temperature rises, human survival will require increasing reliance on these mechanisms.
And just another word about air-conditioners… Mr. Matthews points out that as the climate warms, air-conditioning should be used as a last resort – simply because of its high energy demands. Matthews writes, “By 2050, cooling systems are expected to increase electricity demand by an amount equivalent to the present capacity of the US, EU, and Japan combined.”
If it were possible to keep the electricity running during periods of extreme heat over a wide area, that would save a lot of people, however, if a tropical cyclone were to cause a blackout during a heatwave, it would be disastrous. But what if we combined a massive blackout with extreme heat?
Puerto Rico is a lesson
When Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico in 2017, the territory’s electrical grid was destroyed, leaving the island in the dark for months on end. Matthews and his colleagues found in their research that as the climate warms, it becomes ever more likely that these powerful cyclones will be followed by dangerous heat that would compound the hazards.
This means that not only would people need clean drinking water and access to emergency generators to keep medical equipment running, but keeping people cool would become a priority.
The research is a lot to take in, even though it is timely. The bottom line is that we absolutely need to adapt – but even adaption has its limits. The researchers say, “We must, therefore, maintain our global perspective on heat and pursue a global response, slashing greenhouse gas emissions to keep to the Paris warming limits.”
