New research predicts that as the population of the U.S. grows and the average person lives for longer, the total number of breast cancer cases among women could be as much as 50 percent greater in 2030 compared with the incidence rates in 2011. This significant rise is according to a forecast set by the National Cancer Institute (NCI).
An NCI biostatistician, Philip Rosenberg, presented the findings at the annual meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) held in Philadelphia during April 2015.
In a follow-up statement, Rosenberg explained that the NCI model predicts that the proportion of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, in-situ breast cancer cases may rise from 19 percent to 29 percent. In addition, rates of ER-negative breast cancer diagnoses will decrease. In terms of actual people, the model predicts that the total number of new breast cancer cases in the U.S. will likely increase from 283,000 in 2011 to 441,000 in 2030.
As Rosenberg explains: “Our estimate is that the total number of diagnoses of breast cancer in the U.S. will increase by about 50 percent by 2030. The one silver lining is that we expect fewer ER-negative tumors, which include the most difficult-to-treat HER2-positive and triple-negative subtypes.”
One common way of defining breast cancer types is based on :
Endocrine receptor (estrogen or progesterone receptor) positive
Triple negative, not positive to receptors for estrogen, progesterone, or HER2
Triple positive, positive for estrogen receptors, progesterone receptors and HER2
These classifications explain how the tumor acts and they types of treatments that may work best.
The NCI data is based on mathematical and computational modeling and remains a prediction. The figures are not based on any new biological risks, the figures are an extrapolation of current rates and prediction population growth and enhanced life expectancy among U.S. women.