Average earnings forecast for the UK shows wages set to climb by 15 percent by 2030 – but not everywhere is seeing positive growth. During the recent Spring Statement, Chancellor Rachel Reeves stated that millions of UK workers are set to receive a £1,400-a-year boost to their earnings as a 6.7 percent increase to the National Living Wage kicks-in from April onwards.
Is this the complete story? A new insight from The Global Payroll Association (GPA), reveals that despite the UK’s overall picture showing that earnings are on the rise, 23 local areas of the UK have actually seen salaries fall by as much as 16.6 percent in the past year.
The analysis of average annual earnings data for the UK shows that wages have been increasing steadily over the last decade, increasing every year since 2005, other than 2021 when they fell by a marginal minus 0.7 percent. Within this data set, the largest annual rate of growth came last year (2024), when the average earnings climbed by 8 percent to £38,224 and the GPA forecasts that this figure could climb by a further 15 percent by 2030 – increasing to £43,834 (2030).
Difference and division
Despite this top line positivity, not every area of the UK is seeing positive growth and a more granular analysis of earnings data at local authority level, conducted by the GPA, shows that no less than 23 local authorities have seen earnings decline over the last year – including five London boroughs.
Moreover, wage inequality between occupations remains strong, with divisions by gender and class, reflective of variations in labour power between occupational groups. Trade union membership is an important factor in raising wage levels where occupations are unionised.
Sent to Coventry
In terms of regional variations, between 2023 and 2024, the biggest drop in salary was recorded in Coventry where average earnings fell by 17 percent from £39,800 to £33,182. Mid Sussex saw a drop of 7 percent, followed by Boston at 6 percent and Gravesham at 5 percent.
Drops are also predicted for Colchester (-4.2%), Moray (-4.2%), Stroud (-4.1%), Hammersmith & Fulham (-4%), Lambeth (-3.9%), and the New Forest (-3.8%).
Other comparative data
The other Local Authority districts to see salaries decline are Tower Hamlets (-3.5%), Bracknell Forest (-3.3%), Hillingdon (-2.4%), West Dunbartonshire (-1.6%), Staffordshire Moorlands (-1.6%), Bromley (-1.6%), Hinckley & Bosworth (-1.5%), Castle Point (-1.2%), Tandridge (-1.2%), Derbyshire Dales (-0.9%), East Renfrewshire (-0.6%), Worcester (-0.2%), and High Peak (-0.1%).
Melanie Pizzey, CEO and Founder of the Global Payroll Association tells Digital Journal: “At the very top line, UK workers have enjoyed a decade of consistent earnings growth, with the biggest annual boost coming last year. This growth is forecast to continue through to 2030, however, not every area of the nation is enjoying the same positive upward trends.”
