Chinese exports surged last month at their fastest pace in more than two years, data showed Thursday, easily topping forecasts and providing optimism about the economy as officials steel for a potential US trade war after Donald Trump was re-elected president.
The reading also came after Beijing began unveiling a raft of measures aimed at kickstarting growth with an emphasis on the troubled property sector, boosting hopes that years of post-Covid malaise may be nearing an end.
Exports climbed 12.7 percent to $309.1 billion last month, the General Administration of Customs said, well above the 5.0 percent forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg survey and far higher than the previous month. The figure is the best since mid-2022.
The world’s second-largest economy has struggled to achieve a full post-pandemic recovery, with sluggish domestic consumption and a persistent debt crisis in the property sector hammering growth.
However, in a sign that much more needs to be done to reignite demand at home, Thursday’s figures showed imports slipped 2.3 percent, more than expected and a reversal from September’s slight growth.
Trump’s victory in Tuesday’s elections has fanned concerns of heightened trade tensions between the United States and China after he takes office again in January.
During his first term, he initiated a biting tariff war with Beijing, which he accused of taking advantage of Washington with “unfair” practices.
Incumbent Joe Biden has not reversed the tough stance towards China on trade, but Trump has suggested he will take an even harder line involving 60 percent tariffs on all goods from the country.
China’s export growth in September came in “way better” than expectations, Zhang Zhiwei, President and Chief Economist of Pinpoint Asset Management, said in a note.
“This may be partly driven by exporters trying to front load shipments in order to mitigate the damage of potential trade war next year,” said Zhang.
The country’s performance “shows signs of stabilisation recently,” said Zhang, adding that “we cannot rely on exports to carry China’s economy”.
