Asian stocks mostly rose again Tuesday as worries about a US recession that sent markets into turmoil last week eased ahead of key inflation data, while oil prices held gains on concerns about a broader war in the Middle East.
Tokyo’s Nikkei returned from a long weekend to lead the rally and briefly top the levels touched at the start of the month before last Monday’s rout, helped by a weaker yen and a Bank of Japan pledge not to hike interest rates further.
While the mood on trading floors has calmed since last week’s upheaval, investors remain cagey after a big miss on US jobs creation fanned concerns about the world’s top economy, while geopolitical concerns also remain a drag on sentiment.
And trade was cautious ahead of the release of US consumer and wholesale price figures this week that could play a role in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision-making.
Observers warned that the inflation readings could cause big market moves in either direction, with a weaker-than-expected print adding to worries about the economy, while a strong reading could dent rate-cut bets.
The Fed is also walking a thin line between nurturing growth and trying to bring prices under control, with some saying recent soft data suggests officials have waited too long to cut.
“One of the major risks is the timing and magnitude of the Fed’s rate cuts,” said ACY Securities’ Luca Santos.
“If the Fed delays easing monetary policy, the US economy could risk entering a deeper slowdown, leading to a potential recession.
“Conversely, if the Fed cuts rates too aggressively, it might reignite inflationary pressures or create financial market instability. Balancing these risks will be crucial for maintaining economic stability.”
After a tepid day on Wall Street, Asian markets swung in and out of positive territory to extend a strong start to the week.
Tokyo rose more than two percent — and briefly broke above the August 2 closing price before last Monday’s plunge — while Hong Kong, Sydney, Singapore, Wellington, Manila and Jakarta also rose.
Shanghai, Seoul and Taipei dipped.
Oil prices ticked down but remain up about eight percent for the week owing to fears of a possible spiralling conflict in the Middle East and an escalation of tensions in major producer Russia.
The White House warned Monday that a “significant set of attacks” by Iran and its proxies against Israel was possible as soon as this week after top leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas were assassinated in late July.
– Key figures around 0230 GMT –
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 2.2 percent at 35,785.55 (break)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.2 percent at 17,153.33
Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.1 percent at 2,860.62
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0935 from $1.0931 on Monday
Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2771 from $1.2766
Dollar/yen: UP at 147.30 yen from 147.26 yen
Euro/pound: UP at 85.63 pence from 85.61 pence
West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.6 percent at $79.56 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.6 percent at $81.80 per barrel
New York – Dow: DOWN 0.4 percent at 39,357.01 (close)
London – FTSE 100: UP 0.5 percent at 8,210.25 (close)
