CoinDesk analysis
An analysis by Omkar Godpole, at CoinDesk, was last updated at 11:20 UTC today. Godpole believes that as technical signs have grown more bullish within the last 24 hours that BTC will slowly rise toward the $6,800 level. Godpole notes that the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) that measures the speed and change of price changes has gone up to 59.04 which is the highest it has reached since back on September 4. Any reading above 50 indicates that bullish forces are at work. Godpole concludes that Bitcoin appears the most bullish in two months.
As the article went to press, BTC was trading on Coinbase at $6,510 and that represented a one hundred dollar gain or 1.5 percent over 24 hours.
Some technical analysts would argue that calling for a bullish move on the basis of a strong RSI alone is risky. However, Godpole points out that there are other bullish signs as well. This gives the strong RSI a greater reliability as a strong RSI alone can give on occasion false signals.
Chart analysis
The daily chart shows that BTC has managed to go above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) and witnessed a bullish symmetrical triangle breakout over the weekend. The 5 and 10-day EMA’s are also moving up indicating a bullish setup.
Also, Bitcoin is trading above the upper Bollinger band of $6,500 at press time and a breakout would be verified if BTC closes the day above that level, Finally, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram is rising, indicating there is room for further gains.
In conclusion, both the price action of BTC and technical indicators all validate the bullish signal of the rising RSI.
Godpole’s outlook
Based on his analysis Godpole’s view is: “The odds are stacked in favor of a rally to $6,800 in the near-term. A break above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $6,642 on the 3-day chart would mark the beginning of the long-awaited bullish reversal, as discussed yesterday. A UTC close below the ascending (bullish) 10-day EMA of $6,400 would weaken the bullish pressure.”
Present situation
Shortly after the open today at $6,466 the bullish scenario appeared to be taking shape as the price of BTC rose and during the day hit a high far above $6,500 at $6,555. BTC closed off the day at $6,520 which according to technical analysis confirms the breakout. However, there was never any breakout above the $6,642 level indicating a bullish reversal.
It is now November 8 UTC. Shortly after the open, BTC experienced a sharp drop as low as $6,464. At 03:49 UTC the price was still only $6,466 still way below the $6,500 level. So far the price of BTC is moving now contrary to the technical indicators. Perhaps this is just a temporary pull back and the price will recover later in the day but as of now the bulls seem to be out of luck, The present price of BTC can be found here. The appended video falls in line with the bullish analysis of Godpole.
