CoinDesk analysis
Omkar Godpole writing at CoinDesk released his analysis of the price movement of Bitcoin’s (BTC) price movement at 11:26 UTC today. He notes that BTC has been bogged down in a narrow trading range for the 13th day in a row. Bulls need to force the price to move over the $6,800 level to confirm any break out according to technical charts. So far this has failed to happen.
Godpole claims that Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow range between $6,800 and $6,500 since September 22 and this lack of directional bias has forced the volatility reading to a 21 month low. Actually Bitcoin has dropped below $6,500 including today but not by much. Godpole’s point still stands.
Daily volatility as measured by the Bollinger bandwidth has dropped to 0.078 a low level not reached since December of 2016. An extended period of low volatility is often followed by a sharp break up or down. However, as Godpole himself admits he has been saying that for some time now and there has been no break as yet. This big move is still to come but is overdue according to the technical signs.
Chart analysis
The daily chart shows the Bollinger bands are moving in a sideways manner indicating there is no clear trend in the price movements. For there to be a bull breakout, the Bitcoin price has to be accepted above the Bollinger band of $6,800. A bear tendency would be established if there is a move below the lower band at $6,290.
For now the prospects of a downside break appear the highest as the price has had trouble clearing the 50-day exponential moving average that is at present $6,640.
CoinDesk’s outlook
Based on his technical analysis Godpole’s view is: “The immediate outlook remains neutral as long as BTC is trapped between the Bollinger bands. A UTC close above the upper Bollinger band of $6,800 would confirm a bullish breakout and would open up upside towards the September high of $7,429. A break below the lower Bollinger band of $6,290 would shift risk in favor of a re-test of the June low of $5,755. With bitcoin (BTC) stuck in a narrow trading range for the 13th day in a row, the bulls need to force a move above $6,800 to confirm a breakout, according to the technical charts.”
Present situation
Bitcoin started the day slightly below $6,500 at $6,470 but rose to a high of $6,595. It is now October 5th UTC. Bitcoin closed out October 4th at $6,555 a fair amount above its open but with no substantial break and without closing at the $6,800 level that would signal a bullish trend. However, it did not get below the $6,290 level either. So the movement continues to be indecisive at to direction. Although, a high of $6,589 was reached to day the low has been $6,524. As of 03:25 UTC the price was $6,549. No decisive direction appearing yet but it is early in the new day. The present price of bitcoin can be found here.
