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Bitcoin’s price seems stuck in a narrow range just above $6,000

CoinDesk’s analysis

The article claims that bitcoin risked another move below $6,000 within the next 24 hours but was still likely to do better than most other cryptocurrencies many of which are declining more in value right now than bitcoin. On Tuesday UTC bitcoin closed below the immediate support level of $6,108 the June 13 low. This dimmed hopes of a corrective rally above the major technical hurdle of $6,425 the April 1 low. The failure of the price to follow signs of a short-term bullish trend make it likely that the trend will reverse and risk a break below the $6,000 level, the February low.

The analysis argues that even though the price of bitcoin should drop some more investors might start buying bitcoin as they take their funds out of higher risk cryptocurrencies.

When the article went to press at 10:00 UTC the price on Bitfinex of BTC was just $6,100 down over two percent in just the last 24 hours.

Due to short term bullish signs the price of BTC was expected to break through $6,425 the April 1 low this week but instead it produced another lower high a bearish pattern and signal as it fell from $6,341 to a low just above $6,000.

Yesterday the bitcoin price closed below the immediate support level of $6,108 the June 13 low. This puts the focus back on the bearish outlook. In the next 24 hours BTC could dip below the $6,000 level as the broader bearish outlook would predict. The immediate support levels are $5,755 (Sunday’s doji candle low) and $5,755 which is the lower Bollinger Band.

Risk Aversion

Fiat money tends to come into the cryptocurrency market via major coins such as bitcoin and then is traded for other cryptocoins. If bitcoin looks to be overvalued then money flows to other coins. The rotation of money from bitcoin into other coins is a sign that there is a risk-on market. Clearly, the BTC chart is biased to the bears, however other cryptocurrencies will likely post bigger losses, as indicated by a bearish breakdown in the ether-bitcoin (ETH/BTC) exchange rate. The ether bitcoin exchange rate is a good sign of whether the market is risk-on or risk-off. A falling rate means a risk-off market, a rising one risk-on. The ETH/BTC exchange chart shows it is falling, so there is a risk-off market.

The risk-off market is helping to increase the dominance of bitcoin in the cryptocoin market. Its dominance level has hit a six week high.

CoinDesk’s outlook for the bitcoin price

CoinDesk’s predictions based on the chart analysis:BTC could drop below $6,000 (February low) and could test immediate support of $5,755 and $5,711.
A daily close below $5,755 (Sunday’s Doji candle low) would open the doors to $5,090 (rising wedge breakdown target). On the higher side, only a daily close (as per UTC) above $6,425 (April 1 low) would abort the bearish view and allow a corrective rally.
BTC will likely outperform other cryptocurrencies as indicated by the bearish breakdown on ETH/BTC chart.

Present situation

The price of BTC opened today at just over the $6,000 level at $6,074 and only reached a high of $6,146. It had a low of just $6,007 but never dipped below the $6,000 level. It is now June 28th UTC. The price opened at $6,132 higher than its open yesterday.

It is now 02:35 UTC with the price of BTC at $6,131. The low so far today has been $6,116 and the high $6.157. There is no sign yet of a drop below the $6,000 level but neither is there any sign that the price will move up through the resistance levels noted in the CoinDesk analysis. The market seems to be trading in a narrow range perhaps indicating that there is uncertainty about what the next big move will be, up or down. The present price of BTC can be found here.

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