CoinDesk analysis
Omkar Godbole has an analysis of Bitcoin’s (BTC) price movement today last updated at 11:35 UTC time. He notes that BTC has had its longest monthly losing streak in seven years this December. On December 31 BTC closed at $3,689, representing a 13 percent decline from the opening price of $4,241 according to CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index. This is its worst period since way back in 2011.
At that time, Bitcoin was trading below $20 and had lost 81 percent of its value in the five months up to November 2011. However, the tide turned in favor of the bulls in subsequent month. BTC rose 59 percent in December 2011. By November 2013 it had reached record highs above $900.
Bitcoin could repeat history in that BTC looks to be oversold having lost 52 percent of its value in the last 5 months and an even larger 70 percent for the year. It is also down 80 percent from the record high of around $20,000 reached in December of 2017.
However, the key fundamental metrics are still tending towards the bears. The network value transmitted (NTV) still shows overbought conditions. On technical charts , a long run bullish reversal would only be confirmed above the exponential moving average (EMA) of $5,547. BTC is nowhere near that as yet.
When Godbole’s article went to press BTC was trading at BItstamp at $3,790 up 1.86 percent on a 24-hour basis.
Chart analysis
The daily chart shows a likely inverse head-and-shoulder bullish reversal pattern. The neckline resistance is at $4,180. If BTC closes above that level, this would clear the way for a run towards the $5,200 level. The $4,180 resistance level could be tested as soon as the 3-day chart becomes biased in favor of the bulls.
The three-day chart shows that Bitcoin is staying well above $3,22 the December low. This means that the bullish view shown by the positive divergence off the relative strength index (RSI) is still in play.
The 4-hour chart shows the 100 candle moving average(MA) is located by the 200-candle MA. This shows the path of least resistance is upward. The same chart shows a falling channel breakout. This represents a bullish pattern. Bitcoin could thus re-test the recent highs above the $4,200 level.
Godbole’s view
Based on his technical analysis Godbole believes: BTC could snap its five-month losing streak in January. An inverse head-and-shoulders breakout, if confirmed, would validate the bullish divergence of the RSI seen on the 3-day chart and could yield a rally to $5,000 in the near-term. The prospects of BTC posting gains in January would drop if prices find acceptance below the Dec. 27 low of $3,566.
Present situation
24 hours ago BTC was trading at $3,816. It reached a high so far today of $3,916 with the low being $3,772. At 17:55 Central Standard Time the price was $3,887 up $71 dollars over the period or more than 1.8 percent. The price has yet to break through the $4,000 barrier but at least is headed in that direction. The present price of Bitcoin can be found here.
