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article imageBitcoin had a bad October but is almost at $6,400 today

By Ken Hanly     Nov 1, 2018 in Technology
Bitcoin(BTC) has stabilized and moved up slightly but closed off the month considerably lower than at the beginning. However, it is inching up towards the $6,400 level at present.
CoinDesk analysis
Omkar Godpole posted an analysis of Bitcoin's price movements that was last updated at 14:01 UTC. Godpole notes that BTC ended last month on a weak note This was its first three-month consecutive losing streak since way back in 2015. However, he thinks it may be better in November.
BTC closed yesterday at $6,320 which is down 4.32 percent from its opening price at the start of the month at $6,606 according to the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price index. In the previous months the price had dropped 9.22 percent in August and another 5.8 percent in September.
Back in 2015 BTC was just averaging $250 and prices dropped 4 percent in March, 2.8 percent in April, and just 2.7 percent in May. BTC rallied 14 percent in June after the 3 consecutive monthly losses.
This October's 4 percent drop is the lowest in three months so perhaps the 2015 pattern will repeat itself. According to seasonality and technical studies this could happen.
Signs of a possible rally
Historical data shows that Bitcoin always reported gains in November with the one exception of 2011 when it went down 8.6 percent. The best ever monthly performance of BTC was in November 2013 when it rose a whopping 467 percent.
Bitcoin has defended the 21-month exponential moving average (EMA) for the fifth month in a row. This signals that a bottom could be in place in the vicinity of $6,000. Sellers may run dry around this point.
Another factor is the fact that BTC avoided a bearish monthly close yesterday even in spite of a negative crossover between the 5 and 10 month EMAs.
Outlook is still neutral on monthly chart
As long as prices are trapped between the September high of $7,402 and the 21-day EMA of $6,130 the outlook will remain neutral.
The longer the narrow trading range keeps on, the lower the price volatility will go. Already a number of volatility measures have already hit yearly lows in just the last two months. Daily price volatility has stayed below $100 for seven days in a row last month. This is the longest sequence at this low level since back in April 2017.
CoinDesk's outlook
Godpole''s view is: " Bitcoin may see a rise in November if seasonal patterns repeat. The long-term technical charts indicate bearish exhaustion and a bottom was likely reached around $6,000. A bullish reversal would be confirmed only if BTC invalidates the series of lower highs with a move above the September high of $7,400."
Present situation
It is now November 2 UTC. Bitcoin closed yesterday marginally higher from the open at $6,320, closing at $6,358 after trading in a narrow range all day. So far on November 2, the high almost reached $6,400 at $6,396. At 03:00 UTC the price was $6,371 still above the opening but nowhere near the $7,400 that would confirm a bullish reversal. The present price of Bitcoin can be found here.
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