CoinDesk analysis
Omkar Godbole posted an analysis of bitcoin’s (BTC) price movements on CoinDesk last updated at 13:12 UTC today March 27. He notes that BTC’s price has again rebounded from the 30-day moving average, avoiding a bearish move which saw prices down below $3,920 on Monday.
The move up has BTC return from an uncertain position just 24 hours ago as it had moved below the $3,920 to $4,055 trading range at the beginning of the week. This along with signs of exhaustion on the part of the bulls on longer duration charts indicated the door was open for a deeper decline below the 30-day moving average (MA) at $3,883.
However the MA support held in spite of the bearish setup. This allowed the price to climb back to the $4,000 level. BTC has established a bullish higher low along the key average for the third time this month already. While the bearish case may be weakened, the more bullish view created by the long-tailed doji created on February 27 will only be revived if there is a strong follow through after the rebound to from the 30-day MA support. Preferably, this would involve breaking through the recent high of $4,055 reached on March 21.
As Godbole’s analysis went to press, BTC was trading at $4,015 on Bitstamp a 2.6 percent gain from 24 hours ago. The high had been $4,031.
Chart Analysis
The daily chart shows that BTC had picked up a bid after it had successfully defended the 30-day MA presently at $3,889. The higher low pattern would be confirmed if the bounce results in a high above that of $4,055 established on March 21. This would pave the way to challenge the February high of $4,190 and target the major hurdle of $4,236.
On the 8 hour chart bitcoin has breached the falling channel on the higher side and this is backed by a bullish relative strength index (RSI)of 61.00. Prices may find acceptance above $4,040 within the next few hours.
Summary of Godbole’s view
A summary of Godbole’s views are given in the article: “Bitcoin has again created a higher low along the 30-day moving average line, neutralizing Monday’s bearish close below $3,920. A move above $4,055 (March 21 high) is still needed to revive the short-term bullish setup. That could be followed by a rally to resistance levels lined up at $4,190–$4,236. A UTC close below the 30-day moving average, currently at $3,889, would put the bears in a commanding position, opening the doors for a drop to support levels at $3,775 (March 14 low) and $3,658 (Feb. 27 low).”
Present situation
24 hours ago according to CoinDesk data bitcoin was trading at $3,914 well below the $4,000 level. However, since then it has managed a high of $4,030 with its low having been just below its opening at $3,906. At 14:50 Central Daylight Time BTC was trading at $4,012 up $98 on its open or about 2.5 percent. CoinDesk data are an average from several different exchange prices and so may vary from individual exchanges such as Bitstamp. The present price of bitcoin can be found here.
While bitcoin has not yet breached the several resistance levels it faces, it is closing in on the March 21st high of $4,055 and is not all that far from the February high of $4,190. Bitcoin has failed before to make much of a breakthrough over the $4,000 level but perhaps after several tries this time the bulls will prevail and BTC can breach $4,236 indicating a renewed recovery. We should know within the next few days if the upward trend will continue or if again bitcoin stalls and drifts downward.
