CoinDesk’s analysis
Omkar Godpole provides an analysis of Bitcoin’s (BTC) price movements updated at 19;13 UTC. Godpole notes that BTC is having a difficult time moving above a key moving average that has stopped any sharp move up for four weeks in a row now. The key obstacle is the 10-week exponential moving average (EMA) which has stalled attempted rallies at around $6,100 since mid-September. Since that$time, BTC has not been able to generate a weekly close above the EMA. This has established it as a key level for the bulls.
As the article went to press BTC was trading at $6,580 on Bitfinex after clocking a weekly high of $6,730 on Monday. The 10-week EMA is now at $6,698 with the price of BTC now well below that. The retreat of the last three days shows that BTC has again failed to leap the crucial EMA hurdle, and this weakens the odds of any further gain toward $7,000.
Chart analysis
The weekly chart shows that the 10-week EMA has been strongly capping the price of BTC for a month now. However, on Monday BTC crossed the downwards sloping trendline from July highs, and this confirmed a bullish breakout. But it has fallen back rather than being well above the 10-week hurdle as expected. The hurdle still stands. This failure to initiate a further rally may embolden the bears.
CoinDesk’s outlook
Based on his technical analyses Godpole’s view is: ” BTC’s failure to keep gains above the 10-week EMA despite the trendline breakout has boosted the odds of a drop to $6,424 (last week’s doji candle low). A violation there would open up downside toward the psychological resistance of $6,000. A convincing break above the 10-week EMA of $6,698 would signal a continuation of the rally from the September low of $6,100 and would open up upside toward September highs above $7,400.”
Present situation
While bitcoin closed down today at $6,550 that was just over fifty dollars below its open. However, it is now October 11 and the price of BItcoin has made a sharp move down to a low of $6,125. So there has been the downside break from $6,424 as Godpole suggests could happen. However, by 02:40 UTC the price had recovered over a hundred dollars to $6, 237 so maybe the bears are not in control as yet or perhaps the recovery will be followed by another large dip later in the day. The present price of Bitcoin can be found here.
