CoinDesk analysis
Omkar Godbole has his usual daily analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) price movements on CoinDesk. His analysis on this the final day of November notes that Bitcoin”s price has tanked during the month while volumes have remained high indicating that possibly the market is capitulating to some extent at least.
Godbole’s article was posted at 11:45 UTC. At that time, BTC was trading at $4,000 down 36 percent from its November opening at $6,318 according to CoinMarketCap data. This is the largest monthly decline in 20018. At the same time, trading volumes were up a full third month-on-month to the level of $158.48 billion. Volumes have not been this high since last May.
Even at the beginning of November, Bitcoin had already lost close to 70 percent of its value from its record high close to $20,000 reached in December of last year. The November losses are simply a continuation of a bear market that many thought had bottomed out at $6,000. However, BTC reached a low below $3,500 on high volumes. As the appended video shows this is the latest in a long string of huge losses and recoveries for Bitcoin along with predictions of its demise.
There was no meaningful bounce up even though there were repeated defenses of the 21-month EMA in five months to October. This might have left investors disappointed and caused an increased sell-off as they abandoned the market. With these signs of capitulation it is too early to forecast a long-term bottom.
In the last few days though, prices have made a recovery from the low below $3,500 to back over $4,000. This could potentially be the sign of a start to a corrective rally. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) showed oversold conditions a few days ago.
Some buyers may be coming in because of the present low price.
Chart analysis
On the monthly chart, Bitcoin appears ready to close below the resistance level of the 21-month exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since way back in the month of October 2015. A long-term reversal in favor of the bulls would only be validated if and when prices clear $5,977 the 21-month EMA at present.
The 4-hour chart shows Bitcoin has declined below the double top neckline support which is at $4,120. As a result, the present bullish outlook has been neutralized. If the price declines below the support level of $3,771 the recent low of $3,474 could be the next target. However, a break above the falling trendline could strengthen the existing bullish technical setup and could spark a stronger rally towards $5,000.
Godbole’s outlook
Based on his analysis, Godbole’s view is: “The bitcoin market is likely showing signs of capitulation. A break below the neckline support of $4,120 has neutralized the immediate bullish outlook put forward by the double bottom breakout yesterday. A move below $3,771 (Wednesday’s low) would invalidate the bullish setup on the daily chart and allow re-test of the recent low of $3,474. A break above $4,250 (falling trendline resistance) would open up upside towards $4,761 (resistance as per the 4-hour chart).”
Present situation
Bitcoin is now at $3,920 at 16:25 Central Standard Time according to CoinDesk data. It opened 24 hours ago at $4,213 and reached as high as $4,299 before dropping to as low as $3,878. The price has not dropped below the $3,771 level mentioned by Godbole but there is no sign of any bullish tendency so far. The present price of Bitcoin can be found here.
