Bitcoin has fallen for months
As Nick Chong points out in a recent article bitcoin fell from its high down through $13,000 then several thousand more down through $10,000. Just recently it fell over two thousand more breaking through the $8,000 level. Even at this low level some analysts are predicting another 25 percent drop to $6,000 but a number of traders think that from that point bitcoin will enter a multi-year bull market.
Bitcoin indicators imply that bitcoin is reaching a bottom
Analyst Mohit Sorout a Bitazu Capital partner notes that a number indicators are reaching an inflection point at which point he thinks bitcoin’s price will bounce: “[The] Relative Strength Index, positive Directional Indicator, and negative Directional Indicator all have to reset to an important horizontal level…such levels have only one job: to turn the BTC price around.”
Some indications are that bitcoin could fall a bit lower to test lows at $7,700 before it begins a bullish trend thus reversing the negative trend suggested by earlier indicators.
Earlier model predicted decline but late in October predicts bullish turn
This summer a model correctly predicted the continuing drop in price of bitcoin: “In early-August, a cryptocurrency investment boutique unveiled a price prediction model that used Facebook’s Prophet machine learning software in Python. BurgerCrypto, as the upstart is called, revealed in their model that they expect Bitcoin to fall to the low-$8,000 region in October. ”
However, the same model shows bitcoin’s price turning around in late October and starting a huge rally that leads to an all-time high of over $27,000 in late 2020.
A more recent adaptation of the model also predicts a bitcoin turnaround
According to a machine learning-based price model created by Twitter user “Data Dater”, which used Facebook Prophet’s prediction modeling system, bitcoin is poised to soon begin a recovery phase: “..the model, which is based on analysis of Bitcoin’s stock to flow ratio multiple (S2F Multiple), shows that BTC will begin a fresh, much more mild uptrend to head into May 2020. Data Dater’s chart, in fact, implies that Bitcoin will rally by 25% to $10,000 by mid-November, hit a local peak at $11,500 by January, and then dip back down to $11,000. ”
Present situation
According to CoinDesk data bitcoin’s price opened 24 hours ago just below $8,000 at $7,957. Since then the high has been $8,306 but the low was just $7,884. At 16:30 Central Daylight time the price was still at $8,239 not that far off its highs. It was up $282 from the open or over 3.3 percent. The top twenty cryptocoins followed the bitcoin trend up with only one being down but there are no very large percentage gains with most being around that of bitcoin itself or below. The present price of bitcoin and the top 20 altcoins can be found here.
