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article imageA month after Bitcoin Cash hard fork 2 coins still both trading

By Ken Hanly     Dec 16, 2018 in Technology
On November 15 Bitcoin Cash underwent a hard fork that created two separate networks and coins, Bitcoin Cash ABC and Bitcoin Cash SV. A month later the two coins are still both trading with both coins now close in value.
Bitcoin Cash is itself the product of a hard fork in Bitcoin that took place in 2017: "In mid-2017, a group of developers wanting to increase bitcoin's block size limit prepared a code change. The change, called a hard fork, took effect on 1 August 2017. As a result, the bitcoin ledger called the blockchain and the cryptocurrency split in two.[3] " At the time and since Bitcoin has always been many times more valuable than Bitcoin Cash but this has not stopped Bitcoin Cash still becoming the eighth largest crypto coin by market value at present.
Bitcoin Cash designed to fork every six months
At the fork, developers adopt a software upgrade to the chain. If the miners of the coin and the developers reach a consensus then the changes go through with the chain remaining intact. This is called a soft fork.
However, with the latest fork, the changes in the upgrade did not get agreement and so at the fork two separate chains with a new coin associated with each resulted. Both Bitcoin Cash ABC and Bitcoin Cash SV are trading on a number of exchanges. Even after ten days Sam Ouimet notes in a recent article, the two coins are only just $10 dollars apart in price. Some exchanges are using the old BCH Bitcoin Cash symbol for the Bitcoin Cash ABC coin.
Prices have had wild swings during the month
Back in November, Bitcoin Cash had reached a high of $621 but by November 14 had fallen to $421 just the day before the scheduled fork according to price data from CoinDesk. Immediately after the split, Bitcoin Cash ABC began trading at just $295 while Bitcoin Cash SV was only at $90 on the Binance exchange.
For much of the rest of November Bitcoin Cash ABC (BCHABC) was by far the leader with a lead on occasion of 10 times the value of Bitcoin Cash SV (BCHSV). However, towards the end of the month the gap narrowed and into the month of December. On December 6 BCHSV even took a slight lead.
During the period since the fork the cryptocurrency market along with the leading coin Bitcoin experienced a downturn. The market has lost more than $80 billion since the fork. As a result both of the coins from the fork have been depreciating in price.
At the time, of Ouimet posting his article the BCHABC version was trading at $80 according to CoinMarketCap while BCHSV was at $70.
Looking to the future
The long term success of each coin will likely be determined by usage and hash power. However technical analysis can help to predict how their prices could change in the immediate future. Ouimet has a chart that shows the BCHSV version formed a bearish pattern known as a descending triangle on November 26. This broke down on December 16. The break of the triangle support has left the way open for an even greater depreciation with two support levels at $74 and $54. Given the large size of the triangle pattern the support level is liable to be reached. However, the drop could be slowed as the relative strength index is showing oversold conditions.
The BCHABC chart is less informative. Even since hitting the market though it has been in a downturn. There are no evident support levels nearby. It is hard to predict when the coin price may pick up. However, it also shows oversold conditions so there could be a corrective bounce. Before the two new coins can increase in price both bitcoin and the broader market prices need to increase Ouimet claims.
Present situation
According to CoinGecko data BCHSV had a low of $76.85 during the last 24 hours and a high of $79.81 its price at 18:24 today. The time zone is not given but it seems to be the same as mine Central Standard Time. BCHABC had a low of $78.95 and a high of $81.84 according to CoinGecko data. At 20:24 it was trading at $79.65, The two coins are trading at virtually the same price. The SV version has obviously caught up with the ABC version once again.
More about Bitcoin Cash hard fork, Bitcoin Cash ABC, bitcoin cash SV
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