The announcement was made a week ago at the launch of China’s second space station, Tiangong-2. The new space lab was launched from the Gobi Desert in northern China.
The first lab, Tiangong-1 (Heavenly Palace), was launched into space in September 2011. The 8.5 ton space lab is currently orbiting at 370 kilometers (230 miles) above the Earth. Since its launch five years ago, Tiangong-1 has hosted a total of six taikonauts (astronauts) including the first Chinese woman in space.
Speaking at the launch of Tiangong-2, Wu Ping, the deputy director of the manned space engineering office, announced Tiangong-1 is expected to re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere in late 2017. But what Wu said about the re-entry strongly implied the space lab is out of control. Wu said most of the space station will burn up after it falls out of orbit and it is not likely its return to Earth would affect aviation or cause any damage. She also added China is very good at managing “space debris” and is conducting research on “space debris mitigation and cleaning.”
As Popular Mechanics reports, normally a satellite falling back to Earth is subjected to a controlled burn. This is done over an ocean to ensure no one is injured by parts of the satellite that do not burn. And when a controlled burn is carried out, the exact time of re-entry is known. But Wu’s statements Tiangong- 1 will re-enter the atmosphere “sometime in late 2017” and that the space lab will not “likely” cause any damage leads to the conclusion Chinese space officials have lost control of the space lab. They do not know exactly when and where it will land.
During this past summer, some amateur astronomers speculated China had lost control of Tiangong-1. Although China initially reported they had difficulty contacting the station, they had been silent recently; another indication they had no control over the space lab.
Jonathan McDowell, a Harvard astrophysicist, said if China has indeed lost control of Tiangong-1, where parts of the space station will come down cannot be predicted. McDowell also said even if an initial site could be pinpointed shortly before the space lab falls, any slight change in atmospheric pressure could substantially change the landing area. While most of the space station will burn up. pieces as large as 100 kg. could hit the Earth. There will be no widespread damage when parts of the station come down; only damage to a person or object is struck by a piece of the space station.
Earth is such that the odds favour the debris landing in an ocean or hitting an uninhabited area. But with no control over the re-entry, pieces of Tiangong-1 could come down in a populated area.
