Pacquiao back in U.S. to train
Pacquiao, back in the U.S. to train, is loving the role of underdog. And he’s not going to admit to extra concern about losing to the unbeaten man that boxing fans have waited for years to see him fight.
“This is just like any other fight I had before,” he told ABS-CBN News. “I’ve been in this kind of situation many times in my previous fights. It doesn’t scare me. I love being the underdog.”
The reality is that it will be very hard for Manny Pacquiao to win this fight. He’s a hard puncher, good on his feet but Mayweather is the greatest tactician of his time and easily eclipses Pacquiao when it comes to foot work. Mayweather has an ability to dance sideways away from oncoming fists and pick his spots then – pow! – strike with a suddenness others cannot match.
Mayweather Jr. has the highest plus/minus record in boxing, meaning number of punches thrown and landed, subtracted from the amount thrown and landed on him. In CompuBox’s 2014 rankings Mayweather is on top at +24 while Pacquiao is way back in 9th with a +10.
We all know Mayweather does not throw punches as often as most fighters but stats show that when he does, he picks the right time. He connects an astonishing 42 percent of the time (1st) while his opponents land one of their punches on him only 18 percent of the time (2nd).
Pacquiao connects a punch to an opponent 35 percent of the time (10th) and is struck by 25 percent of the punches his opponents throw at him (tied for 10th). Pacquiao’s trainer Freddie Roach said last week that his fighter would likely knock out Mayweather in the latter rounds of this fight, building up to it by wearing the American down. That despite Pacquiao not having knocked anyone out since May of 2009 when he floored Ricky Hatton.
A look at those numbers suggest Pacquiao is going to have to throw a lot more punches than Mayweather just to land as many as his opponent does. Who’s gonna tire then? Given those numbers who is going to be more susceptible to a knockout late in the fight?
Pacquiao, Mayweather vs. Marquez
How else can we compare these two great fighters? Pacquiao is a little younger — he’s 36, Mayweather just turned 38 — but Mayweather is bigger, he’s taller and he has a longer reach. How have they done when they’ve fought the same opponent?
In all but one case when they’ve fought the same boxer they’ve each won. That one case? Juan Manuel Marquez. Marquez is the only man Pacquiao has fought four times and Marquez beat Pacquiao once (by knockout), drew with him once and lost twice, close each time.
In Mayweather’s only meeting with him he beat Marquez handily, landing 59 percent of 490 punches, compared to Marquez, who landed only 12 percent of 583 punches.
When it comes to punch power between the two welterweights (they’ll fight at 147lbs.) there’s little separating them, which Shane Mosley and Oscar De La Hoya, who each fought and lost to both Mayweather and Pacquiao, have said. So the difference will come down to punches thrown and connected, to the ability to remain in top form as the fight progresses.
Mayweather is a beast, he’ll be the man standing straight up when the fight is done. Pacquiao may like the title of underdog now but on May 2 in Las Vegas when the fight is over he won’t like knowing he deserved it.