Coincidentally, Uruguay were in a similar situation as underdogs at this stage four years ago, against hosts Argentina, whereas the pressure is on Chile to advance past the first stage of the knockout round — the hosts have failed to do so in every major competition since the 2010 World Cup. Knockout round games tend to be tight, cautious affairs, and considering the physical presence both sides possess, it’s likely that the pattern of this match will follow suit.
Stylistically, Chile and Uruguay are vastly diverse — the former is an exciting outfit under Jorge Sampaoli that relies on high-pressing and speed in transition, whereas the latter is missing talisman Luis Suarez, thus forcing Oscar Tabarez’s men to play fairly reactively. With that being said, Chile should dominate possession and be left with the task of breaking down a combative Uruguay back-line.
Although Sampaoli opted for a three-man defence in the tournament opener, it’s likely he’ll persist with a 4-3-3, making no personnel changes following their best display of the tournament in a 5-0 thrashing of Bolivia. Alexis Sanchez and Eduardo Vargas offer direct dribbling, pace, and stretch the back-line from an inside wide position, whereas Jorge Valdivia will drop between the lines to receive the ball, before attempting to slide defence-splitting passes behind the back-line.
The Chilean full-backs are essentially positioned as advanced wing backs, Marcelo Diaz drops deeper from midfield in search of possession, whereas Arturo Vidal and Charles Aranguiz charge forward towards goal — Vidal, in particular, is renowned for his penetrative runs from midfield towards the opposition’s box.
While Chile’s attacking trio is undeniably dangerous, there are few issues they may encounter against Uruguay. Valdivia’s movement into pockets of space in midfield, and between the lines is exceptional, but his final pass has been inconsistent throughout the group stage. Likewise, Sampaoli’s attack has flourished when they received space to penetrate in transition, but have lacked the cutting edge to make the difference against deep defensive units.
Tabarez, however, has been forced to cope without his best player in Luis Suarez, who undoubtedly gives Uruguay an additional offensive dimension. Where Suarez is handed freedom to connect midfield and attack, or play on the last shoulder — enabling Edinson Cavani to do the aforementioned duties — his tireless work rate and competitiveness gave Uruguay life.
Perhaps Tabarez could switch to a three-man defence to cope with the threat of Vargas and Sanchez, but the Uruguayan manager will likely operate in a functional 4-4-2. Christian Stuani, Abel Hernandez and Diego Rolan have all been selected upfront this tournament, but it’s difficult to predict which striker will partner Cavani due to poor performances when handed the opportunity.
This was, and could still be Cavani’s time to flourish as the main man, but with limited creativity in midfield, the striker has been forced to drop deep to retain possession — a role that he excels in when Luis Suarez leads the line. With that being said, Tabarez will recall Nicholas Lodeiro to midfield for creativity, whereas Egidio Arevalo Rios will protect the back four.
With no extra-time in the quarter or semi-finals of the tournament, the significance of both back-lines can’t be overlooked. Uruguay walked into the tournament with the arguably the most stable defence consisting of Maxi and Alvaro Pereira, and the two Atletico centre backs, Jose Gimenez and Diego Godin. Uruguay will often play in deep blocks off four, limiting Chile’s space to run into, as the quartet remain competent defenders when they’re ahead of the ball.
Nevertheless, despite the contrast in styles, it appears that key battle lies in midfield between Rios and Valdivia. Uruguay’s low block will leave Chile with two routes of attack from open play — excluding individual brilliance. Valdivia will need to find space away from the aggressive Rios in midfield to influence the match, as the attempt to bypass the midfield with long balls behind Uruguay may prove unsuccessful.
The other key area in this match will be set pieces: in short, both teams will be nervy in conceding free-kicks or corners. Most recently, Sanchez has displayed his ability to execute free kicks, or at the utmost worst force the keeper to worry about his positioning. Sanchez hit the post and rattled the bar in Chile’s final group stage game against Bolivia, further showcasing his threat.
On the other hand, Chile’s clear weakness is their diminutive back-line. Here, this is a problem, solely because Uruguay possesses three legitimate aerial threats. Cavani is renowned for his near post runs from corner kicks, whereas Gimenez scored a superb header against Paraguay over the weekend. Godin, who will return from a one-match suspension, has also scored vital goals from corner kicks in Atletico’s historical title run and last year’s World Cup.
The opening 15 minutes of the match remains crucial — Chile tend to start matches well with high energy and pressing, and it’s important that they execute in this time frame. An opening goal would force Uruguay to push forward for an equalizer, thus creating space to exploit on the counter.
Uruguay is more than capable of keeping a clean sheet, and will seek to make this a scrappy encounter. The tournament is still awaiting the emergence of top-class Cavani performance, and with Chile likely to push players forward, this presents an ideal opportunity to finally be the difference maker for his country.
