Greater Philadelphia Shows Moderate Economic Growth; Employment Not Expected to Hit Pre-Recession Levels Until 2013
Greater Philadelphia, PA (PRWEB) May 14, 2012
Greater Philadelphia's economy is growing slowly and continued moderate growth is likely, according to new quarterly economic indicators released by Select Greater Philadelphia in partnership with IHS Global Insight.
The Greater Philadelphia Leading Index (GPLI), designed to signal the strength and direction of economic activity in the region over the next six months was up slightly in January, the latest month reported, over December, but down from November, suggesting a slight moderation in the rate of growth in the near future. The index began to level off in the second half of 2011 after a gradual rise, confirming that the region's economy will be growing moderately over the near term. IHS Global Insight attributes the sudden drop in monthly values of the GPLI since August primarily to a decline in the Philadelphia Stock Index; since then, the index has risen significantly, suggesting that the GPLI may turn upward in the next release, scheduled for June.
By comparison, the U.S. Leading Index has been steadily gaining, confirming that the National economy continues to recover more quickly than the region's and suggesting that the national recovery will eventually pull the regional economy along with it.
The Greater Philadelphia Coincident Index (GPCI) is a measure of the current direction of economic activity in the region, varying directly with movements in the US business cycle. In 2011, the GPCI trended downward in the first half of the year, began to move strongly up during the early Fall, before declining again in November and December.
The index rose again in January, the latest month reported, suggesting that the recovery in the U.S. economy is starting to take hold in Greater Philadelphia.
Select and IHS Global Insight have concluded that Greater Philadelphia's economy began to recover in March 2010, but its pace of recovery has been slower than the nation. One explanation, the researchers suggest, is that the region's economy didn't start slowing down until well after the national economy, and has since trailed it coming out of the downturn.
The gradual rate of economic recovery in the region, according to IHS Global Insight, means that the region's total non-farm employment will not return it pre-recession levels until the second half of 2013 at the earliest.
For a detailed quarterly report on Greater Philadelphia's leading and coincident indices of economic activity, including the methodology, and to obtain current values and year- over-year changes for a large number of data elements that measure economic activity, visit http://www.selectgreaterphiladelphia.com/data/eco_indicators.cfm
About Select Greater Philadelphia
Select Greater Philadelphia (Select) is an economic development marketing organization dedicated to attracting companies to the Greater Philadelphia region. Select assists companies interested in the vicinity by providing detailed information about the 11-county area and a one-stop connection to numerous resources that help companies make informed decisions about locating to the region. Through global marketing efforts, Select works to promote the region’s key assets to help build the area’s economy. The Greater Philadelphia region encompasses northern Delaware, southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania. Select is a private, non-profit organization and an affiliate of the Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce. For more information, visit http://www.selectgreaterphiladelphia.com or call 215-790-3777.