An ultraconservative candidate with polarizing appeal, Jair Bolsonaro, is surging in polls just ahead of the first round of Brazil's presidential elections, heightening emotions and social divisions as Latin America's biggest economy sets out to choose its next leader.
On Wednesday -- four days before Sunday's election -- Bolsonaro was seen with 32 percent of voter intentions after rising four percentage points since last week, according to the survey firm Datafolha. Other pollsters, including Ibope, confirm his ascent.
That puts Bolsonaro well ahead of the 21 percent credited to his nearest rival, Fernando Haddad, fronting for the leftwing Workers Party after its emblematic figure, popular former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, was disqualified after being incarcerated for graft.
But the final outcome, to be decided by a run-off election October 28 if no candidate gets more than 50 percent of valid ballots in the first round, is still far from certain.
A duel between Bolsonaro and Haddad would see a 44-42 percent split, according to Datafolha -- too close to call given the plus-or-minus-two-point margin of error.
Bolsonaro, however, has predicted the run-off won't be necessary, saying he believes he will win the presidency in the first round.
"Last week I would have called it impossible. But today I think he (Bolsonaro) has a real chance of winning right from the first round. It's not the most likely scenario, but it's possible," said Sergio Praca, a political science professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation.
- A polarizing figure -
Bolsonaro, 63, engenders support and rejection in equal measure.
A former army captain and veteran politician who has sat in congress for the past 29 years, he spooks those proud of Brazil's progressive values with his intolerant views on women, gays, abortion and the mostly black poor population, and his nostalgia for the country's 1964-1985 military dictatorship. That has sparked demonstrations and a social media campaign: #EleNao (#NotHim).
But his tough law-and-order rhetoric, his clean reputation free of the corruption scandals ensnaring so many of Brazil's politicians, and his vow to get the country's limping economy back on track have driven his growing support.
Investors and the economic elite appear swayed by his plan to usher in austerity and privatizations to cut Brazil's climbing debt, this week sharply driving up the Sao Paulo stock market and the value of the real against the dollar.
Yet many Brazilian women are opposed to Bolsonaro taking power.
Marches last weekend that saw hundreds of thousands of women taking to the streets in many cities and towns "had the effect of exacerbating the polarization" around Bolsonaro and chipping away at the big bloc of undecided voters, said Geraldo Monteiro, director of a political research center at Rio de Janeiro State University.
Ciro Gomes, a center-left candidate polling in third place with 11 percent voter support, said the demonstrations were "a major error." He said they had helped tip some wavering voters to Bolsonaro, who had just left hospital after being stabbed in the stomach three weeks earlier by a man police said acted alone out of political motives.
- Voter rejection -
Part of the swing toward Bolsonaro had its roots in visceral rejection of Haddad's Workers Party, blamed for Brazil's worst-ever recession in 2014-2016 and sullied by a far-reaching corruption probe. Bolsonaro was even making inroads in the poor northeast of the country, a traditional Workers Party stronghold.
"I see a lot of Bolsonaro voters who have never read his program but who are voting for him out of hate of the Workers Party," Monteiro said.
The "extreme polarization" being witnessed in this election could see voters casting ballots more to block a detested candidate instead of in support of one they favor, he said.
That level of rejection was seen in the Datafolha survey, which noted that 45 percent of voters said they would never vote for Bolsonaro, while 41 percent outright refused to back Haddad.
If the election does go to a knockout round, "instead of looking for centrist votes, the candidates risk radicalizing their rhetoric even further to boost the possible rejection of their rival," Monteiro said.
An ultraconservative candidate with polarizing appeal, Jair Bolsonaro, is surging in polls just ahead of the first round of Brazil’s presidential elections, heightening emotions and social divisions as Latin America’s biggest economy sets out to choose its next leader.
On Wednesday — four days before Sunday’s election — Bolsonaro was seen with 32 percent of voter intentions after rising four percentage points since last week, according to the survey firm Datafolha. Other pollsters, including Ibope, confirm his ascent.
That puts Bolsonaro well ahead of the 21 percent credited to his nearest rival, Fernando Haddad, fronting for the leftwing Workers Party after its emblematic figure, popular former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, was disqualified after being incarcerated for graft.
But the final outcome, to be decided by a run-off election October 28 if no candidate gets more than 50 percent of valid ballots in the first round, is still far from certain.
A duel between Bolsonaro and Haddad would see a 44-42 percent split, according to Datafolha — too close to call given the plus-or-minus-two-point margin of error.
Bolsonaro, however, has predicted the run-off won’t be necessary, saying he believes he will win the presidency in the first round.
“Last week I would have called it impossible. But today I think he (Bolsonaro) has a real chance of winning right from the first round. It’s not the most likely scenario, but it’s possible,” said Sergio Praca, a political science professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation.
– A polarizing figure –
Bolsonaro, 63, engenders support and rejection in equal measure.
A former army captain and veteran politician who has sat in congress for the past 29 years, he spooks those proud of Brazil’s progressive values with his intolerant views on women, gays, abortion and the mostly black poor population, and his nostalgia for the country’s 1964-1985 military dictatorship. That has sparked demonstrations and a social media campaign: #EleNao (#NotHim).
But his tough law-and-order rhetoric, his clean reputation free of the corruption scandals ensnaring so many of Brazil’s politicians, and his vow to get the country’s limping economy back on track have driven his growing support.
Investors and the economic elite appear swayed by his plan to usher in austerity and privatizations to cut Brazil’s climbing debt, this week sharply driving up the Sao Paulo stock market and the value of the real against the dollar.
Yet many Brazilian women are opposed to Bolsonaro taking power.
Marches last weekend that saw hundreds of thousands of women taking to the streets in many cities and towns “had the effect of exacerbating the polarization” around Bolsonaro and chipping away at the big bloc of undecided voters, said Geraldo Monteiro, director of a political research center at Rio de Janeiro State University.
Ciro Gomes, a center-left candidate polling in third place with 11 percent voter support, said the demonstrations were “a major error.” He said they had helped tip some wavering voters to Bolsonaro, who had just left hospital after being stabbed in the stomach three weeks earlier by a man police said acted alone out of political motives.
– Voter rejection –
Part of the swing toward Bolsonaro had its roots in visceral rejection of Haddad’s Workers Party, blamed for Brazil’s worst-ever recession in 2014-2016 and sullied by a far-reaching corruption probe. Bolsonaro was even making inroads in the poor northeast of the country, a traditional Workers Party stronghold.
“I see a lot of Bolsonaro voters who have never read his program but who are voting for him out of hate of the Workers Party,” Monteiro said.
The “extreme polarization” being witnessed in this election could see voters casting ballots more to block a detested candidate instead of in support of one they favor, he said.
That level of rejection was seen in the Datafolha survey, which noted that 45 percent of voters said they would never vote for Bolsonaro, while 41 percent outright refused to back Haddad.
If the election does go to a knockout round, “instead of looking for centrist votes, the candidates risk radicalizing their rhetoric even further to boost the possible rejection of their rival,” Monteiro said.
