Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's six-year term reaches midpoint on Tuesday, a date few have been anticipating more eagerly than the country's opposition, which will now be able to initiate a recall referendum.
The measure can take place only after the president has served half his term, and the opposition in control of parliament is chomping at the bit.
It is organizing a demonstration on Tuesday to demand the National Electoral Council launch the measure.
Lawmakers also meet this week to approve legislation that would simplify the procedures for holding a referendum and they are set to introduce a constitutional amendment that would reduce the president's term.
But any real hope for success is premature, say analysts who point to the country's political impasse.
Of the five laws the opposition has passed in the hundred days since its historic victory in parliamentary elections, none has been enacted.
The Supreme Court, which is close to the government, has blocked many of the National Assembly's decisions.
Each side is convinced it has the advantage in their trench warfare.
"The oligarchy is desperate," Maduro has said.
"It's the government that's cornered," countered Julio Borges, chief of the opposition Democratic Unity Roundtable coalition's deputies in parliament.
- Economic chaos -
One matter is indisputable, however -- the country's economic chaos that is compounding the political morass.
The fall in global oil prices has plunged the once-wealthy petrostate into serious crisis, depriving it of the foreign currency it needs to pay for imports.
Venezuelans are finding daily life increasingly difficult.
They must suffer endless queues in supermarkets, where most shelves are empty, and endure the world's worst inflation -- more than 180 percent in 2015. They also face regular shortages of water and electricity.
"This hasn't been easy, we've had three complicated years," the 53-year-old Maduro acknowledged last week, accusing the opposition of prompting the shortages as part of an "economic war."
"But I promise the next three years will be ones of growth and the building of socialism," he added.
They could also be years of legal war.
The Supreme Court has rejected landmark legislation from the anti-Maduro camp in recent months, including an amnesty for political prisoners and reform of the Central Bank that would enable the opposition to take control.
The court also approved a decree establishing a state of economic emergency, giving Maduro sweeping powers against the protests of parliament.
Few therefore predict a successful outcome for the referendum law the opposition is set to approve, or for its moves to reform the court, which stripped the legislature of key oversight powers last month in a ruling aimed at thwarting moves to change the makeup of the high court.
- Tipping point? -
Experts say Venezuela's opposition can succeed only through politics or at the ballot box.
"The solution can't be legal or constitutional because the government has seized institutions," says constitutional expert Juan Manuel Raffalli.
Jose Ignacio Hernandez, another constitutional law expert, agrees.
Parliament is "using up its last ammunition" because all its measures "will be canceled by the constitutional court."
The opposition appears to be sticking with its old tactics nevertheless.
"We must continue on the same path," parliamentary speaker Henry Ramos Allup said. "We can't abandon our duties. The assembly is the last institutional space we have left."
That may be increasingly difficult with Maduro on the offensive.
He has threatened to shorten lawmakers' terms in office if they continue trying to clip his wings. "The National Assembly should pack its bags because its time is coming," he said.
Pope Francis's call for dialogue two weeks ago has had no effect.
"This game is completely blocked and we could soon see the consequences," said Raul Arrieta, a former diplomat and law professor. "You can't inflate a balloon forever without bursting it."
But despite his upper hand in the battle, Maduro's options are narrowing, he added.
"Extending the problem endlessly" would be "political suicide for the government," which is already very unpopular and must seek "a way to get along."
Hernandez, the constitutional law expert, agrees.
The country is close to a "breaking point," he says, and must choose between dialogue and a "scenario of social conflict."
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s six-year term reaches midpoint on Tuesday, a date few have been anticipating more eagerly than the country’s opposition, which will now be able to initiate a recall referendum.
The measure can take place only after the president has served half his term, and the opposition in control of parliament is chomping at the bit.
It is organizing a demonstration on Tuesday to demand the National Electoral Council launch the measure.
Lawmakers also meet this week to approve legislation that would simplify the procedures for holding a referendum and they are set to introduce a constitutional amendment that would reduce the president’s term.
But any real hope for success is premature, say analysts who point to the country’s political impasse.
Of the five laws the opposition has passed in the hundred days since its historic victory in parliamentary elections, none has been enacted.
The Supreme Court, which is close to the government, has blocked many of the National Assembly’s decisions.
Each side is convinced it has the advantage in their trench warfare.
“The oligarchy is desperate,” Maduro has said.
“It’s the government that’s cornered,” countered Julio Borges, chief of the opposition Democratic Unity Roundtable coalition’s deputies in parliament.
– Economic chaos –
One matter is indisputable, however — the country’s economic chaos that is compounding the political morass.
The fall in global oil prices has plunged the once-wealthy petrostate into serious crisis, depriving it of the foreign currency it needs to pay for imports.
Venezuelans are finding daily life increasingly difficult.
They must suffer endless queues in supermarkets, where most shelves are empty, and endure the world’s worst inflation — more than 180 percent in 2015. They also face regular shortages of water and electricity.
“This hasn’t been easy, we’ve had three complicated years,” the 53-year-old Maduro acknowledged last week, accusing the opposition of prompting the shortages as part of an “economic war.”
“But I promise the next three years will be ones of growth and the building of socialism,” he added.
They could also be years of legal war.
The Supreme Court has rejected landmark legislation from the anti-Maduro camp in recent months, including an amnesty for political prisoners and reform of the Central Bank that would enable the opposition to take control.
The court also approved a decree establishing a state of economic emergency, giving Maduro sweeping powers against the protests of parliament.
Few therefore predict a successful outcome for the referendum law the opposition is set to approve, or for its moves to reform the court, which stripped the legislature of key oversight powers last month in a ruling aimed at thwarting moves to change the makeup of the high court.
– Tipping point? –
Experts say Venezuela’s opposition can succeed only through politics or at the ballot box.
“The solution can’t be legal or constitutional because the government has seized institutions,” says constitutional expert Juan Manuel Raffalli.
Jose Ignacio Hernandez, another constitutional law expert, agrees.
Parliament is “using up its last ammunition” because all its measures “will be canceled by the constitutional court.”
The opposition appears to be sticking with its old tactics nevertheless.
“We must continue on the same path,” parliamentary speaker Henry Ramos Allup said. “We can’t abandon our duties. The assembly is the last institutional space we have left.”
That may be increasingly difficult with Maduro on the offensive.
He has threatened to shorten lawmakers’ terms in office if they continue trying to clip his wings. “The National Assembly should pack its bags because its time is coming,” he said.
Pope Francis’s call for dialogue two weeks ago has had no effect.
“This game is completely blocked and we could soon see the consequences,” said Raul Arrieta, a former diplomat and law professor. “You can’t inflate a balloon forever without bursting it.”
But despite his upper hand in the battle, Maduro’s options are narrowing, he added.
“Extending the problem endlessly” would be “political suicide for the government,” which is already very unpopular and must seek “a way to get along.”
Hernandez, the constitutional law expert, agrees.
The country is close to a “breaking point,” he says, and must choose between dialogue and a “scenario of social conflict.”
