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Op-Ed: Trump major gaffe with China gets ominous response

Chinese diplomacy tends to be a combination of carrot and stick. In the response to Trump’s rather vague statement that One China is negotiable, the response was a baseball bat. The response included references to “bloodstained facts, merciless combat, and despicable strategy”, the last referring to Trump’s apparent exploitation of the One China issues.
In the Chinese language, a high degree of basic decorum has been the hallmark of most official communications for thousands of years. The Chinese are always polite, if rarely ambiguous. In the modern Chinese media, the language is a bit harsher, or sometimes even sarcastic, but never on this level of obvious unrestrained anger since the Cultural Revolution. It’s not a good sign.
One China has been an irrevocable part of Chinese policy since 1949, when the communists took over China. It’s highly unlikely that China has suddenly changed its mind since November. Add to this Trump’s various calls for American goods made in China to return to the U.S., and there are no diplomatic, currency, trade or economic goals being scored by the incoming American administration with China, except own goals. Add also the “block access to South China Sea islands” mantra, and it’s a full spectrum of lousy calls, which the Chinese have been quick to exploit.
America’s economic and military edge in Asia has long since been eroded. China is the big neighbour with all the big money. Previous American administrations, occupied with the Middle East wars, have diverted focus from the region. The diplomatic, trade and economic environment has changed, but American policies have been slow to recognize the new issues.
Allies in the region, notably Australia and Japan, haven’t been consulted on this approach to China, either. Japan has its own issues with China, but not to the point of starting a major confrontation. Australia has been groaning for over a decade regarding the apparent desire of some American politicians to damage trade and start useless conflicts with China which can have no outcome but major economic problems.
This is not to say that China doesn’t have a few negative issues of its own. Cyber-attacks, in particular, don’t generate much sympathy from their recipients. The South China Sea islands haven’t impressed the region with the sensitivity of Chinese diplomacy, either. However – a few extra rocks in the sea and cyber-attacks which can be shut down if someone wanted to do so aren’t a basis for a global confrontation. The likely basis of any real confrontation would be a trade war.
It’s odd that Trump, who has a reputation as a deal maker, would try to antagonize a potentially extremely dangerous opponent. You can’t make deals with angry people. You also shouldn’t antagonize an opponent which can attack global trade on multiple levels.
The unthinkable – America loses a trade war with China?
In the past, during the Cold War, about half the world would have sided with the U.S. in any confrontation with China. Recently, U.S. sanctions against Russia, for example, got that sort of response. Things have changed, and China is different. China has direct reach to every market on Earth.
Chinese economic influence is very real, and for some countries, critical. Chinese money speaks clearly, where American politics barely manages to get out a coherent sentence. Politics aside, China isn’t seen as an immediate threat by most nations, either; more a large elephant in a room which is a bit smaller than it was.
If the US maintains a technical edge, it can’t be said that its economics are an advantage. The Rust Belt has spread to the rest of the economy. America’s economic situation is entirely different from its almost invulnerable position in the 20th century up to the 1990s.
America could lose a trade war with China. After a century of dominance, the venal American political system has done staggering amounts of damage to the world’s biggest economy. It’s a morass of economic failures, overpriced services, and to put it mildly dubious corporate practices. A single market crash in 2007 set off an economy-wide implosion; a bigger crash could do serious, perhaps even permanent damage. To risk the American domestic economy’s still iffy health in a trade war is downright insane.

China doesn’t have those problems. It does have areas of economic vulnerability, but not to the point of serious domestic risk in a trade war with America. Cutting off a few trade links won’t do much more than annoy the Chinese. Capital damage will cut both ways, too, and it’s also unlikely that many nations will appreciate America compromising their trade with China.
Even a country like Australia, with strong natural organic ties to the US based on a nearly 200 year long relationship, can’t be said to be overly enthusiastic about a possible trade war with China. China is our biggest trading partner. We have a trade surplus with China. We also have a long standing relationship in terms of core business in Australia. There are occasional disputes, but no major issues of any kind.

Iron ore is being stockpiled for export at Port Hedland in Western Australia  on February 9  2012

Iron ore is being stockpiled for export at Port Hedland in Western Australia, on February 9, 2012
Bhp Billiton, BHP Billiton/AFP/File

If we’re expected to do our “client state” thing in case of an America-China trade war, there are no good points in it for us. Lack of consultation isn’t a plus, either. The anti-Chinese element in American politics has never seemed much more than half-witted, clumsy as hell and self-defeating at best. This element has yet to achieve anything, either. To expect Australia to enact economic policies on the same feeble logic in a trade war isn’t going to be any more popular.
To expect China to forgo the One China policy isn’t just absurd; it barely deserves to be called a hallucination. It also seems indicative of the hare-brained logic of America’s China policies.
The whole idea of a provocative, rhetoric-based confrontation with China is, to put it as politely as possible, idiotic. This region doesn’t need any more problems. It certainly doesn’t need brattish super power windbags blowing up unnecessary and potentially highly destructive situations.
Trump has poked a very large, powerful dragon with a very short, brittle, and highly implausible stick. This dragon definitely doesn’t like being poked. To reiterate an old Roman quote: “If you’d kept your mouth shut, we would have thought you were clever.” Speak softly, or preferably not at all in this case, carry a big stick or not, and don’t be total fools.

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Written By

Editor-at-Large based in Sydney, Australia.

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