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Op-Ed: Russia and eastern Libya commander sign naval base agreement

The Al Jazeera article noted that Russian State media did not mention the agreement although they confirmed that Russia would get a foothold in the southern Mediterranean. The LNA associated with the House of Representatives (HoR) government did not issue any announcement either. News from Libya is often misleading or simply wrong with the different sides in the conflict presenting different descriptions of what happened.

Haftar had been welcomed to the Russian aircraft carrier Kuznetsov several days ago. The ship stayed in international waters. A Russian delegation also visited Misrata in the western area of LIbya controlled by the rival UN-brokered Government of National Accord(GNA) according to a tweet: “#Russia-n delegation visited #Misrata, while #Haftar was aboard #Kuznetsov, to meet City & Military Councils at al-Masa hotel”

Haftar does not recognize the GNA, its ruling Presidency Council, nor its armed forces. Many militia associated with the GNA he regards as his opponents to be eliminated by his Operation Dignity started in May of 2014. Haftar is trying to defeat all his Islamist opponents in Libya. He has several times said he would liberate Tripoli controlled by militias loyal to the GNA for now.

Italy recently reopened its embassy in Libya demonstrating political support for the faltering GNA presided over by Fayez Serraj who has been unable to get a vote of confidence from the HoR as required by the Libya Political Agreement(LPA). Italy also has some troops in Libya purportedly to guard a field hospital it built in Misrata.

Success implementing the LPA depends upon making a deal with Haftar that would bring him on board and allow the HoR to vote confidence in the GNA. There is no sign of that happening. Haftar has even refused to talk to the UN envoy to Libya Martin Kobler who has been trying to facilitate the process. He even says it is no use talking to Serraj. As the Al Jazeera article notes Haftar has acted cleverly: In a display of strategic sagacity, Haftar has waited for Sarraj to progressively erode his authority in Tripoli while avoiding engaging militarily with rival militias in Misrata, who support Sarraj and the GNA. Misrata forces have been occupied throughout 2016 in the war against the Islamic State in Sirte, which they liberated in December after suffering extensive casualties.
Haftar has seized oil fields in the east including the four main oil ports in the oil crescent. For pragmatic reasons he has allowed the National Oil Company to export oil. Some of the funds from the oil come back to help support him and his government.

Haftar had already developed strong links with foreign countries such as Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE. Now he has been developing stronger relations with Russia. Russia sees the Libya link as increasing its power in the Middle East at the expense of the United States along with increased ties to countries such as Egypt and the UAE. Arturo Varvelli, a Libya specialist at the Institute of International Politicial Studies said: “If Haftar doesn’t agree to the UN plan, there is no way out of the crisis. His role is key. The question is whether the General aims at playing a role within the GNA or at becoming Libya’s new leader. I am afraid he is going for the second option. He mistakenly believes he would be able to govern the entire country, but militias in Misrata and Tripoli will never consent. Libya represents an interesting opportunity for Russia’s geopolitical ambitions. The Kremlin is taking advantage of the political void left by the American administration and is stretching its arm in the Mediterranean.”

I agree completely with Varvelli. However, as he notes, there are militia in Misrata and Tripoli and no doubt elsewhere who will not consent to his rule. There is no way many within the GNA would accept Haftar as leader. The GNA would implode if there were any GNA agreement that kept Haftar as head of the armed forces. It is difficult to see how out and out conflict can be avoided as has already happened with several clashes in southern Libya.

Analyst Mattia Toaldo, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations said:“It is unlikely Russia will try to lift the embargo, considering Europe’s determination to maintain it in such a dangerous context. I don’t believe Moscow is seeking a direct intervention in Libya in the same way as in Syria. In the next few months the Kremlin will keep exerting its influence from the outside, However, until Haftar will believe he has the unconditional support of Russia, and possibly of the Trump administration, he won’t have any interest in taking part in the ongoing political negotiations.” However, it is not clear why Haftar would even then engage in negotiations at least any that the GNA could accept. He would have arrived at a situation where he can directly continue with a military solution or after negotiations fail because there is no solution satisfactory to many in the GNA. The evidence for outright conflict happening soon seems very strong.

There are several ongoing peace projects including one by Algeria. However so far there have been no positive outcomes. It is not clear how there could be. These appear vain attempts to avoid conflict. Meanwhile, in the east Italian support for the GNA is roundly criticized with the HoR claiming: “The Presidency Council have allowed the grandsons of Benito Mussolini to return to Libya on board warships to defile Libya’s soil.”

UPDATE: LNA spokesperson denies any agreements were signed on board Kuznetsov according to a tweet: “LNA Spox: Marshal Khalifa Haftar did not sign any agreements while onboard of the Russian carrier. #Libya
http://alwasat.ly/ar/news/libya/130344/ …” Of course this could be false. Photos showed something was signed.

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