The Associated Press is reporting that the UN’s Lisa Grande said on Monday that in the worst-case scenario if one million people decided to flee Mosul during the battle, at least 700,000 of them would require shelter.
This would overwhelm emergency sites that currently have the capacity to hold 60,000 people. Grande says providing a large number of shelters can’t be done right now, and even in “the intermediate-term, if they couldn’t go back to Mosul quickly, if there was too much damage in the city, then it would test us to the breaking point.”
Abu Mohammed, a 35-year-old living in Mosul’s east side, told the Guardian he is a Shia and has managed to survive under ISIS occupation by passing himself off as a Sunni. He said:
“Daesh are moving into civilian houses and mixing with the population. For example, Daesh has placed a large depot of IEDs [improvised explosive devices] in a house next to my cousin’s house. I begged him to leave his house and bring his family to stay with me as the house could be targeted by the coalition. He refused and said: ‘Whatever destiny brings.’”
U.S. aircraft have begun dropping over seven million pamphlets over the city, telling citizens to stay in their homes and giving instructions on how to protect themselves and their children from flying glass and other debris.
But Mohammad says it would be difficult for anyone to flee because big ditches have been dug around many neighborhoods. Daesh [another name for Islamic State] are riding around on motorbikes, and the terrorists shoot anyone they see trying to flee.
But Grande says that even if just one-sixth of the people try to leave Mosul, they would present a huge problem. “There’s an informal rule of thumb that any population movement over 150,000 people at once, no institution in the world can deal with it,” Grande said.
But behind the looming humanitarian crisis is an even bigger problem. There is not enough money to support the aid needed to help the large population in Mosul. Of the $367 million requested, less than half has been received so far.
A group called the International Organisation for Migration has already set in motion plans to build emergency shelters for 200,000 people, but last week, even they said they were still short on the needed funding.
Added to the lack of funds, winter is coming to the region, and this means people would be left without shelter from the freezing desert nights. Of the three Iraqi cities recaptured from ISIS-control, only Fallujah had a substantial civilian population.
When people began fleeing Fallujah, aid organisations were not prepared to handle the tens of thousands of refugees, leaving them to end up in squalid and overcrowded camps. In the meantime, the fighting to take back the city of Mosul goes on.