A historic ceasefire between the Colombian government and FARC rebels marks a "point of no return" on the road to peace but risks still lie ahead, analysts say.
- What is the agreement's scope?
"This is a very important step forward" in the talks conducted since November 2012 between the government of President Juan Manuel Santos and the Marxist guerrillas of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), said Ariel Avila, a political scientist at Bogota's Externado University and deputy director of the Foundation for Peace and Reconciliation.
"It may not be the final agreement, but we're already at the point of no return," Alejo Vargas, coordinator of the National University's Center for Reflection and Monitoring of the Peace Dialogues, added in a statement.
"This agreement is the decisive point in the negotiations and will lead to the finalization of the conflict with the FARC," which began with a peasant uprising in the early 1960s, said Jorge Restrepo, director of the Conflict Analysis Resource Center (CERAC).
- What are the important points?
"This agreement's most significant element is the renunciation of armed violence and use of force to harm the adversary," CERAC said in a statement.
With agreements on the ceasefire, demobilization, disarmament and action against paramilitary groups, the accord "achieved 95 percent" of what was on the agenda at the talks, Avila said.
For Vargas, the "negotiations are irreversible and what remains (to be done) has been reduced to implementing the signed agreements."
These include deals struck over recent years on land reform, the FARC's future political role, illegal drugs, reparation for victims and finally the ceasefire.
- What are the challenges ahead?
The agreement is lacking on a few "delicate" points, Avila said: the reintegration of FARC members, the means of ratifying the accord and FARC demands for discussions over agricultural land, drugs and the media.
Colombia is the world's largest cocaine producer, according to the United Nations. The drug has fueled the 52-year conflict.
Vargas believes possible violations of the bilateral ceasefire would have little effect. Such incidents since the FARC declared a unilateral ceasefire in July 2015 "did not affect what's been achieved today and what's still to come."
CERAC is less optimistic, predicting that the agreement will "increase violent confrontation through battles for control of criminal resources ... in the areas with demobilized paramilitary groups and the ELN," the leftist National Liberation Army -- the country's second-biggest guerrilla group.
CERAC did not rule out that "other armed groups would use violence to attack this agreement and the peace process," which is "a minor risk, but not negligible."
The analysis group also warned of "the political risk that a final agreement with the FARC would be rejected by some citizens or the political opposition, which would thwart the progress of the bilateral ceasefire agreement."
However, Vargas said, government supporters of the deal are in the majority in the country. In a referendum, he estimated, "up to 70 percent would vote 'Yes.'"
A historic ceasefire between the Colombian government and FARC rebels marks a “point of no return” on the road to peace but risks still lie ahead, analysts say.
– What is the agreement’s scope?
“This is a very important step forward” in the talks conducted since November 2012 between the government of President Juan Manuel Santos and the Marxist guerrillas of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), said Ariel Avila, a political scientist at Bogota’s Externado University and deputy director of the Foundation for Peace and Reconciliation.
“It may not be the final agreement, but we’re already at the point of no return,” Alejo Vargas, coordinator of the National University’s Center for Reflection and Monitoring of the Peace Dialogues, added in a statement.
“This agreement is the decisive point in the negotiations and will lead to the finalization of the conflict with the FARC,” which began with a peasant uprising in the early 1960s, said Jorge Restrepo, director of the Conflict Analysis Resource Center (CERAC).
– What are the important points?
“This agreement’s most significant element is the renunciation of armed violence and use of force to harm the adversary,” CERAC said in a statement.
With agreements on the ceasefire, demobilization, disarmament and action against paramilitary groups, the accord “achieved 95 percent” of what was on the agenda at the talks, Avila said.
For Vargas, the “negotiations are irreversible and what remains (to be done) has been reduced to implementing the signed agreements.”
These include deals struck over recent years on land reform, the FARC’s future political role, illegal drugs, reparation for victims and finally the ceasefire.
– What are the challenges ahead?
The agreement is lacking on a few “delicate” points, Avila said: the reintegration of FARC members, the means of ratifying the accord and FARC demands for discussions over agricultural land, drugs and the media.
Colombia is the world’s largest cocaine producer, according to the United Nations. The drug has fueled the 52-year conflict.
Vargas believes possible violations of the bilateral ceasefire would have little effect. Such incidents since the FARC declared a unilateral ceasefire in July 2015 “did not affect what’s been achieved today and what’s still to come.”
CERAC is less optimistic, predicting that the agreement will “increase violent confrontation through battles for control of criminal resources … in the areas with demobilized paramilitary groups and the ELN,” the leftist National Liberation Army — the country’s second-biggest guerrilla group.
CERAC did not rule out that “other armed groups would use violence to attack this agreement and the peace process,” which is “a minor risk, but not negligible.”
The analysis group also warned of “the political risk that a final agreement with the FARC would be rejected by some citizens or the political opposition, which would thwart the progress of the bilateral ceasefire agreement.”
However, Vargas said, government supporters of the deal are in the majority in the country. In a referendum, he estimated, “up to 70 percent would vote ‘Yes.'”
