The Nanos poll was taken between July 26 and August 21 and showed Conservatives with 30.1 percent support, NDP with 29.1, and Liberals with 29.9. The Nanos poll gave the NDP less support than other polls taken around the same time.
A new poll by Angus Reid taken from August 19 to August 24 shows the Conservatives still at 30 but with the NDP at 37 percent and Liberals trailing badly at just 24 percent support. The later poll by Forum Research shows an even bigger lead for the NDP. The poll was taken on August 23 and 24. This poll shows a huge difference in support for the Liberals and lack of support for the Conservatives compared to other recent polls. The Conservatives register only 23 percent support, while the NDP has a whopping 40 per cent. The Liberals are well ahead of the Conservatives with 30 per cent support. While this may be surprising it is almost identical to what the Nanos poll gave the Liberals. The CBC poll tracker is probably a better guide to what is happening than these individual polls.
The poll-tracker averages confirm the NDP trend upwards but also indicate that the Liberals are unlikely to be 7 percentage points ahead of the Conservatives although the slowing economy and fallout from the Duffy trial may perhaps be eating into Conservative support. The poll-tracker averages are from August 24 and include the two later polls I referred to earlier. The Conservatives have 28.1 percent support a decline of 1.1 percent from the last reading. The NDP has 37.4 per cent up a substantial 3.6 percent, and the Liberals were actually down at 25.9 percent a decline of 1.6 per cent. The NDP would win the most seats at 144, still far short of the 170 needed for a majority government. The Conservatives would win 112 and the Liberals still trailing substantially with 81 seats.
A very recent poll by Ipsos for Global News released Thursday gives renewed hope for the Liberals. The poll gives the NDP 33 percent support confirming its lead but only 3 points ahead of the Liberals with 30 percent and the Conservatives with 29 percent. According to this poll the race is still very close. With the election taking place on October 19th it appears too early to make any firm predictions. The polls would indicate that at present the NDP appears to be maintaining a lead but not by a large margin. The Liberals may be in the process of overtaking the Conservatives. However, as Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs said: “There’s nobody here that’s really bursting out of the pack. It’s incredible how closely bunched these parties are.” Other polls, however, paint a somewhat different picture.