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article imagePolls increasingly favor Republicans on election eve

By Larry Clifton     Nov 3, 2014 in Politics
Washington - After a long brutal 2014 election season, the only poll that really counts takes place tomorrow. Voters will determine whether the Republican or Democratic party sets the political agenda in coming years.
Having said that, most national polls suggest President Barack Obama’s Democrats will be reduced to minority status in the U.S. Senate and will lose many more seats in the House, some say as many as 75 counting the 2010 Republican punch. Meanwhile, on election eve, it is difficult if not impossible to find a poll suggesting Democrats will see a net gain of seats in either chamber of Congress.
As if Democrats needed more reasons to panic, a flurry of Sunday polls indicated that Republicans were surging in a number of battleground states. In Iowa, the Des Moines Register poll — an historically accurate one — has Republican Senate hopeful Joni Ernst pulling away from Democrat Bruce Braley by seven points, 51 to 44 percent. An early election night win by Ernst would be an ominous sign for Democrats. Meanwhile, Republicans and Democrats agree Senate seats of retiring Democrats in West Virginia, Montana and South Dakota are Republican gains in the bank. If Ernst wins, Republicans need only pick up a couple of seats in a bottleneck of tossup races, many that are leaning Republican.
Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul told CNN’s State of the Union host, "I think the wind is at our back.” He added that Republicans will "in all likelihood" win control of the Senate. "I think people are ready for new leadership," he said. Democrat Sen. Harry Reid, who currently leads the Senate, indicated that Democrats must win Iowa or else. "Iowa is critical. There's no other way to say it," Reid said Saturday in a conference call with the Progressive Change Campaign Committee. "Joni Ernst would mean — coming to the United States Senate — that Mitch McConnell would be leader of the United States Senate, who agrees with her on everything," according to Politico.
Still, Democrats must block several other probable Republican paths to control of the Senate. Democrat Sen. Mary Landrieu who is running against two Republicans is polling at 44 percent support according to a fresh NBC News/Marist poll. According to state law, Landrieu must reach 50 percent or face one of the Republicans in a runoff election that most polls suggest she would lose to Republican Bill Cassidy. Republicans and their supporters have linked Landrieu to Pres. Barack Obama, who is highly unpopular in Louisiana.
Republicans are ahead in most national polls and increasingly favored to take over blue seats in Alaska and Arkansas. Realistically, Republicans could take control of the Senate by winning the six seats mentioned. However, other blue states where Democrats are behind in polls or statistically tied with Republicans include Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina.
As for Kansas, the historically red state presents an opportunity for Democrats. In Kansas, the Democrat was polling so poorly that the Democratic Party pulled him, giving a former Democrat running as an Independent better odds at unseating Republican Sen. Pat Roberts. Most national polls have the two in a statistical tie. Democrats hope to flip that seat and use it as an electoral firewall. For their part, Republicans are going all out to push Roberts through the small electoral opening. Ordinarily, Kansas is not a state where Democrats expect to win elections. By pulling their own candidate, party leaders hope the former Democrat turned Independent candidate can win, and then caucus with the Democrats.
More about polls election eve, 2014 midterm elections, Democrats republicans, Obama, joni ernst
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