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article imageConservatives lead but Liberals close behind in election polls

By Ken Hanly     Oct 3, 2015 in Politics
Ottawa - With less than three weeks to go in the campaign, the Conservatives retain a very small lead over the second-place Liberals in the 2015 Canadian federal election race according to CBC poll-tracker averages.
The NDP remains in third place. However, so far no party has forged out in front by any significant margin, and no party is close to winning the 170 seats needed for a majority. The latest CBC poll-tracker averages show declines in the popular vote for both the Conservatives and NDP with no change in the Liberal percentage.
The Conservatives in the latest averages with polls up to October 1 are leading with 32.3 percent of the votes, a marginal decline of 0.2 percent from the last polls. The Liberals are in second with 30.4 percent of the vote, unchanged from last time, and the NDP are down slightly to 26.8 percent a decline of 0.4 percent. The NDP is losing ground in Quebec where it has been exceptionally strong.
The separatist Bloc Quebecois(BQ) now has 5.0 percent of the vote up 0.5 percent. However, the party runs only in the province of Quebec so this is quite a large gain. In the seat projection, it has moved from winning no seats to two at present. A recent poll showed the BQ at 24 percent support in Quebec just four points behind the NDP. Among francophone voters however the BQ had 30 percent support marginally better than the NDP. The Green Party also increased its vote share to 4.8 a gain of 0.2 percent.
For some time now, the Conservatives have been inching up in the polls to take the lead. However, recent polls muddy the waters a bit. Some polls put the Conservatives in a clear lead over the Liberals but others have the Liberals actually leading the Conservatives. There are considerable variations among polls.
Six different pollsters put Conservatives between 30 and 34 percent of the vote. The NDP polls have less variation at 26 to 28 percent. However, the Liberal polls vary considerably. Three pollsters rate them from 27 to 29 percent virtually tied with the NDP. The other three polls put them at between 32 and 33.5 percent. Depending which polls you pick the Conservatives could have a lead of up to seven points on the Liberals or the Liberals could actually be in the lead.
If you are a Liberal supporter you could point to the most recent poll by Nanos/Globe taken from the 29th of September to October 1. It shows the Conservatives at 31.9 percent, Liberals at 33.5 percent, and NDP trailing at just 25.9 percent. If you support the Conservatives you could point to the Angus Reid poll taken from September 28th to the 30th which shows the Conservatives at 34 percent and the Liberals and NDP tied for second at just 27 percent. The NDP could claim they are tied with the Liberals for second place. Perhaps as we approach election day on October 19th the situation could become clearer but perhaps not. As of now whoever gets the most seats will most likely still lack a majority.
The latest CBC poll-tracker averages result in the following seat projections. Conservatives win the most at 126. The Liberals are second at 107 but the NDP is not far behind with 102. The Bloc Quebecois is set to win two and the Green Party one seat.
More about 2015 canadian federal election, Cbc poll tracker, federal conservatives
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