Many troops still remain to be withdrawn
After a few hundred withdrawn troops, this will still leave about 13,000 US troops in Afghanistan. The deal with the Taliban would see a further reduction in the near term to a level of about 8,600. If the Taliban keep their commitments under the deal then the remaining troops would be withdrawn, finally ending the 19-year war. The Taliban are to insure jihadists such as Al Qaeda be kept out of areas controlled by the Taliban. Also, the Taliban must enter into intra-Afghan talks including with members of the Afghan government. The deal is so worded that the US could easily claim that the Taliban has not honored the deal and cease their withdrawal.
Afghan government response to deal complicates the situation
As a confidence building measure the deal with the Taliban requires the Afghan government to release 5,000 Taliban prisoners before the start of talks between the government members and the Taliban. However, the Afghan government was not part of the deal and on March 1 President Ghani rejected the prisoner exchange claiming the Afghan government had not agreed to the swap and it was only the authority of the Afghan government that could have the prisoners released. Subsequently, the Taliban started attacks on the government again as no talks had been worked out with no prisoner exchange taking place, and the 7 day reduction in violence period was over. However, they did not attack US or other foreign forces.
On March 10 Ghani signed a decree that ordered the Afghan government to start releasing 1,500 Taliban prisoners on March 14 if they agree to sign pledges they will not return to battle. However, if the pledges are not made the decree will be void. It remains to be seen if this will satisfy the Taliban. The same day the US began troop withdrawal.
Afghan government faces its own problems
President Ahraf Ghani has been declared the winner of last September’s election. However, challenger Abdullah Abdullah has charged that there was fraud in the vote, along with the elections complaints commission. This threatens the next steps in the peace process and could even result in violence.
On Monday both Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah held swearing in ceremonies. There was an explosion at Ghani’s swearing in. The two had been unsuccessful in negotiating a compromise the night before.
In 2014 the situation was similar. Ghani was declared the winner but Abdullah Abdullah contested the result. After two months of talks aided by US mediation a compromise was reached. Ghani remained president but a new position was created Chief Executive Officer of Afghanistan and Abdullah Abdullah was awarded that position. The two also agreed to what was called a national unity government. However the CEO office was not renewed when the new election was called. It remains to be seen if it will be necessary for another compromise to be negotiated between the two contending parties.
The issue should be cleared up before talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government take place.
