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Op-Ed: Turkey and US agree to a problematic ceasefire in Syria

The deal

Under the deal, Turkey along with allied rebel factions will halt all military operations while the US will act to “facilitate the withdrawal of Kurdish YPG forces from the safe zone area Turkey wants to establish.” Pence also said that once the US successfully has done this Turkey would accept a permanent ceasefire. Pence made the announcement at the US Embassy in the Turkish capital Ankara.

A recent article describes the deal: “Following negotiations — led by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vice President Mike Pence — the two sides released a joint statement that said Turkey “will pause” its operations for 120 hours for those Kurdish forces to withdraw from a 20-mile-deep territory that will then be controlled by Turkey.Turkey’s operation in northern Syria “will be halted upon completion of this withdrawal,” which will be facilitated by the U.S., according to Pence.”

Turkey claims there is no ceasefire

A recent article notes: “The pause of Turkey’s anti-terror operation in Syria is not a cease-fire, cease-fire can only happen between the two legitimate sides, the Turkish foreign minister said on Thursday. “Turkey will end the operation in northern Syria only after YPG/PKK terrorists leave [safe zone],” Mevlut Cavusoglu told a news conference.”We [Turkey and the U.S.] agreed on collecting heavy weapons of YPG, destructing their positions and fortifications,” Cavusoglu added.”

Although Pence spoke of a ceasefire the Kurdish forces who are resisting the Turkish invasion seem not to be involved at all. There is no guarantee that the Kurds will allow themselves to have their heavy weapons collected and fortifications destroyed by the Turks and the US. The Turkish description appears much more accurate than that of Pence.

US just withdrew from the border area

The US has just withdrawn from the safe zone area in order not to be in conflict with invading Turkish forces. Now it seems that the US will be entering the area again in order to help disarm the Kurds.

Even if the US and Turkey together are able to disarm and defeat the Kurds in the area there is no guarantee that the Turks will stop there. What will the US do if Turkey decides to extend its control?

Parts of the safe zone are now occupied by Assad forces

The Kurds have made a deal with the Syrian government to allow its forces to occupy parts of the safe zone and adjacent areas including the cities of Kobane and Manbij. It is unlikely that these forces will allow the US and Turks to disarm the Kurds in the area and give the territory over to the Turks. They are there to resist the Turkish invasion.

The Pence announcement makes little sense especially after the negative reaction to the US withdrawal from the area and loud complaints that the US had betrayed the Kurds who had helped them defeat ISIS in northern Syria. Now the US is going to help Turkey establish itself in the safe zone and drive out the Kurds.

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