The Guardian says the GNA is expected to establish an office in Tripoli in the next few days but that their arrival could be contested and provoke new violence in the city. Some of the militia may support the GNA simply as a way of ensuring that their members receive pay. The Guardian makes it clear why the establishment of the office is so important: Western capitals predict the new government will give a green light to a future military training programme for a new Libyan army and back the US-led airstrikes against Islamic State militants already under way.The new government of national accord was nominated over the weekend by a UN-recognised provisional government in exile, the presidency council based in Tunis, a move that was quickly endorsed by the US, the UN and EU.
The GNA is an instrument for the legitimization of foreign intervention in Libya. That is why even though the HoR has not voted confidence in the GNA, foreign powers accept it as a fact that the GNA is now the government of Libya — and the UN, U.S., and EU applaud the moves. It is also why EU countries are preparing sanctions against heads of the so far internationally recognized House of Representatives (HoR) and the rival General National Congress (GNC).
The Libyan Political Dialogue was originally set up to negotiate a unity government and peace between the two rival governments. The UN was unable to get either parliament to approve the draft agreement presented to them. The UN then convened members of the Dialogue who supported the agreement, who signed the Libya Political Accord(LPA) at Skhirat Morocco on December 17th. The move which violated the aim and the basic rules of the Dialogue was immediately supported by the UN, U.S., and EU.
However, the LPA required that the HoR vote confidence in the GNA, The UN was unable to obtain such approval. In effect, the UN and GNA ignored the rules and after conferring with the Political Dialogue members who voted approval of the LPA, simply announced that the GNA was the legitimate government and would move to Tripoli. A letter allegedly signed by a majority of the HoR has been used as an equivalent to a vote by the HoR. However if the HoR does not amend the Constitutional Declaration of 2011, the GNA will not be legal. Again, the UN, U.S., and EU applaud this illegal move. However, those left out of the process by these violations must now be punished so we have sanctions being drawn up. Of course the sanctions must be legal since they are allowed by a UN resolution!
It remains to be seen what happens on the ground as at least one militia the Samood Front is opposed to the GNA as is the GNC. Even some members of the Libya Dialogue have voiced doubts about the legitimacy of the GNA without a formal vote in the HoR. The Guardian claims that the UN, US, and the EU hope that even a symbolic presence of the GNA in Tripoli will encourage other power brokers to support the GNA. The ministers are expected to stay in a single heavily guarded installation. It will be interesting to see who the guards will be.
There is no sign that the HoR is intending to dissolve and become part of the GNA. It is the legislature of the GNA: Tobruk Parliament speaker Aqailah Saleh says his government of Abdullah Al-Thanni will start exporting oil from April 01
Saleh is one of the individuals set to be sanctioned by the EU.The EU is planning to sanction the head of the GNA legislature that they vow to support. Saleh probably knows that the threat of EU sanctions may not mean much. The EU claimed that Khalifa Haftar would be sanctioned but he never was.
