Email
Password
Remember meForgot password?
    Log in with Twitter

article imageOp-Ed: Ontario poll tracker polls mostly correct with some exceptions

By Ken Hanly     Jun 8, 2018 in Politics
Toronto - Doug Ford led his Progressive Conservatives to a resounding victory in yesterday's Ontario election a result predicted by the CBC's Ontario election poll tracker. However it was substantially off in a few instances.
The final results and the poll tracker predictions
The poll tracker final update can be found in a recent Digital Journal article.
The tracker was quite close on the number of PC seats, predicting that they would win 78 whereas they won 76. The PC's were predicted to get 38.7 percent of the vote and actually got a bit more at 40.63 but still fairly close.
The NDP were predicted to get 45 seats but actually got only 40. The tracker over-estimated the NDP popular vote at 35.5 percent while it actually got only 33.69 but it was not that far off.
The tracker was close on the Liberal popular vote at 19.6 percent whereas it actually got 19.3. However, it was quite wrong about how that would translate into seats. The Liberals won seven seats, just missing official party status that requires eight seats. The poll tracker predicted that the Liberals would win only one seat.
Perhaps leader Kathleen Wynne's plea to vote Liberal and send representatives to control the other parties had some effect in constituencies where the Liberals had a chance of winning. Not too surprisingly Wynne announced she was resigning as Liberal leader after the election results came in.
The Green's were predicted to get 4.9 percent of the popular vote but actually got slightly less 4.62. They were also predicted to win no seats but they did win one and almost by 15,000 votes. While the tracker did mention that the Greens were in play in one riding you would think that their polls should have detected Green leader Mike Schreiner's lead in Guelph constituency.
Musings
The NDP lost momentum near the end while the PCs seemed to gain a few more votes. There is little sign of Liberal votes switching to the NDP to stop Ford and the PCs. The Green vote also appeared to stay relatively stable and most Green voters did not switch to the NDP.
Kathleen Wynne could have helped the NDP by appealing to Liberals in constituencies where the Liberals could not win but the NDP could to vote NDP. She did not do so. In effect, she helped make sure that Ford won even though NDP policies are much closer to those of the Liberals than those of Ford. Perhaps she does not want the NDP to be a winning alternative to the Liberals. However, the Liberals will not even have official party status and so as the leader of the opposition the NDP will still appear to many as the most viable alternative to the PCs not the Liberals.
This opinion article was written by an independent writer. The opinions and views expressed herein are those of the author and are not necessarily intended to reflect those of DigitalJournal.com
More about Ontario election poll tracker, ontario election results, Doug Ford
More news from