Poll tracker results as of June 6
In the popular vote, the PCs have taken a marginal lead at 38 percent to the NDP’s 36.5 percent. The Liberals are down to 19.1 percent and the Greens are at 5.0 percent. Other parties have 1.4 percent.
The two leading parties have both gained in the popular vote with the PC’s up 0.2 and the NDP 0.3. The Liberals lost 0.2 and the Greens 0.2 and others 0.1. There appears a slight shift to the two leaders but there is not much evidence of a large shift to the NDP to stop Doug Ford. This is needed before the NDP can have a hope of defeating the PCs.
The seat distribution shows the PCs still far in the lead and the Liberals almost certain not to reach the 8 seat level needed to have official party status. It looks quite likely that whoever wins will have a majority. The PCs are slated to win 73 seats as against just 50 for the NDP. The Liberals now are predicted to win just one. Wynne’s pleading with Liberal voters to elect more candidates appears to have fallen on deaf ears.
There is still an 87.4 percent probability that the PCs will win a majority and only a 3.4 percent probability that they will win the most seats but not with a majority. The NDP has just a 5.8 percent probability of winning a majority and only a 2.8 percent chance of winning the most seats but not a majority.
The PC vote is much more efficient than that of the NDP in winning seat so it is important that the NDP gain momentum and win the popular vote by a number of points. So far this is not happening. The two have been almost neck-in-neck for two weeks now a development that can only hurt the NDP’s chances of winning. The Liberals are even worse off and are competitive only in a handful of ridings.
The GTA-Hamilton-Niagara area
Even with just a modest lead in the polls the PCs can win more than twice the seats of the NDP in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)- Hamilton-Niagara. The key role of the area in Ontario elections is discussed in a recent CBC article.
The PCs are predicted to win between 28 and 37 seats in the area tripling their performance from the last election. The NDP will also likely triple its performance but just win between 10 and 18. The Liberals are only competitive in two ridings in the area.
Where the parties lead
The PCs have the lead in eastern Ontario and are in a close race with the NDP in the southwest. The NDP is now leading in northern Ontario and the city of Toronto. The Liberals have a hope of winning only in a few seats in eastern Ontario and in Toronto. Given the small number of seats the Liberals are likely to win it will likely lose official recognition as a party and be unlikely to be part of a minority government.
It will take a huge swing towards the NDP during the actual vote for the NDP to win.
