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article imageOp-Ed: NDP ahead in Ontario popular vote but behind PCs in winning seats

By Ken Hanly     Jun 3, 2018 in Politics
Toronto - The NDP caught up with the PC's in the popular vote but its momentum has stalled with the two close to being tied in the popular vote race . While the NDP is now marginally ahead in the popular vote, it is still far behind in the race for the most seats.
The Progressive Conservatives (PCs) are projected to win by far the most seats. The PC's are predicted to win twice as many seats as the New Democratic Party (NDP) in the Greater Toronto Area-Hamilton-Niagara region. The PC''s are also ahead in eastern Ontario. The NDP leads in northern and southwestern Ontario. They also lead in Toronto but the PC's are battling for more seats there.
The latest CBC poll tracker results
The NDP has a marginal lead in the popular vote at 37.1 percent as compared to 36.1 percent according to the poll tracker averages updated until June 3. The Liberals are at 20.3. The NDP percent in unchanged from the last update while the PC's have declined minus 1.1 and the Liberals are up 1.2 percent. The Greens are at 5.1 percent unchanged as are other parties at 1.5 percent
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The PC vote is much more efficient in terms of winning seats than the NDP. As a result the seat projections are very much in favor of the PCs. The PCs are expected to win 69 seats to just 52 for the NDP. The Liberals are set to win only three. The Greens and other parties are not expected to win any seats.
The probability of the PCs winning a majority is 77.1 percent. There is also an 8 percent probability that they win the most seats but not a majority. There is just a 9.8 percent chance that the NDP win a majority and a 4.5 percent probability that they win the most seats but not a majority.
Campaign enters final days
The election is on Thursday June 7th. A recent Digital Journal article describes some of the action on the last few days.
In St. Catharines NDP leader Horwath tried to convince Liberal voters that her party is the only one that can defeat the Tories. Many left-leaning Liberals, especially in the many constituencies where Liberals have poor chances of winning may decide to vote strategically in order to try to elect the NDP candidate in order to ensure that Ford and the PCs don't win. This could be a crucial factor in determining the outcome. Those who support the Greens too may decide to switch to the NDP in order to help defeat Ford.
Whoever wins will become a key Canadian politician for as Nelson Wiseman, a professor of Canadian politics at the U of Toronto said: “Ontario is like New York and California combined. Because the province is so powerful, whoever becomes premier is a major player in the federal scene.”
Horwath does not rule out a coalition
Although earlier in the campaign, the NDP's Horwath said she had no interest in forming a coalition with the Liberals she gave a more cautious answer when she was recently asked about possibly forming a coalition if the NDP won the most seats but not a majority. Horwath said: I'm going to wait until Thursday of next week to determine what the people of this province have decided, and I'll go from there,"
The probability predictions show that a minority NDP result has only a small chance of happening. The Liberals are only slated to win only 3 seats. Whoever wins is likely to have a majority.
The NDP needs to gain more votes from the Liberals and others and regain its positive momentum if it is to have a significant chance of defeating the PC's.
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This opinion article was written by an independent writer. The opinions and views expressed herein are those of the author and are not necessarily intended to reflect those of
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