The updated Ontario poll tracker for May 31st show the NDP marginally ahead of the PCs at 37.3 percent to 36.6 percent. The NDP is down 0.4 percent from the last update while the PCs gained more at 0.7. It appears that it is not the PCs that are losing votes as the NDP would like to see but the Liberals who are already in terrible shape. The Liberals declined to just 19.3 percent of the vote down 0.2 percent. Greens were at 5.1 percent a slight gain of 0.1 percent, Other parties were down 0.2 percent at 1.7.
The picture changes drastically when we look at the likely distribution of seats. While the NDP are.expected to win 52 seats, the PCs will win a whopping 71. The Liberals are likely only to win one seat. The Greens and other parties will win none.
The PC vote is much more efficient than that of the NDP in winning seats. The Liberals are at historic lows in spite of leader Kathleen Wynne doing well in the last debate. See a recent Digital Journal article. Every Liberal seat faces the danger of being lost even that of the leader. While the NDP leads in the city of Toronto, in the seat-rich Greater Toronto Area-Hamilton-Niagara region the PCs are likely to win twice as many seats as the NDP. Southwestern Ontario ridings will be hotly contested between the PCs and the NDP. The Liberals only have the hope of retaining a few seats in Toronto or eastern Ontario where they still have some support.
There is still an 81.5 percent probability that the PCs will win a majority of seats and a 5.6 percent probability that they win the most seats but not a majority. This would cause problems as Liberals are not likely to form a coalition with the PCs. They are not likely to have many seats in any event. It seems that it is likely whoever wins will likely gain a majority. There is an 8.6 percent probability that the NDP will win a majority and a 3.6 percent chance the it wins the most seats but not a majority.
PCs finally post a costed campaign program
After promising to do so for over a month, the PCs have finally posted their campaign promises with costs attached. Opposition parties had been continually complaining about the lack of such a plan. It was posted Tuesday night on the PC campaign website and is called “For The People: A Plan for Ontario”.
The plan reiterates numerous promises made by the PCs during the campaign. Mike Crawley tweeted: “Mike Crawley ✔ @CBCQueensPark NEW: Ontario PC website has been revamped overnight. There are now costs listed with each promise. But they are not added up to give any bottom line deficit figure. #onpoli https://www.ontariopc.ca/plan”
However a Globe and Mail article points out: “While the document lists the price of many of the PCs’ initiatives, a party official confirmed that a full accounting of the Tories’ promises won’t be released before Election Day.”
The NDP needs to gain votes from the PCs according to the appended video. In the latest polls the PCs are actually gaining votes and the NDP losing. This situation needs to be reversed before the NDP chances of winning can advance,
