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Canada: Latest poll averages show slight Liberal lead

There have been a few polls over the holidays with four out of six showing the Liberals leading and only polls by EKOS and Angus Reid showing the Conservatives ahead. Eric Grenier who runs the website threehundredeight and also contributes to the CBC poll tracker notes: A few polls over the last few days, despite the holiday weekend. Nanos is showing a very wide Liberal lead, as is Forum. EKOS is showing a much closer race, however. And it is differentiated from the other polls in having the New Democrats very low, at just 19%.

EKOS maintains there is a three-way deadlock in Quebec but that Ontario is a two-way race between Conservatives and Liberals with the NDP losing ground in third place. The NDP is still a major player in BC, however. EKOS claims a minority government of either Liberals or Conservatives is almost certain. The EKOS poll was taken between October 8 and October 10. The Conservative percentage was 35.5, the Liberals 33.1, and the NDP a mere 19. This low value for the NDP is not reflected in five other recent polls.

EKOS believes that cellphone-only households may be critical to the final election results. EKOS claims that last election they included this segment in their polls. They discovered that the group were less likely to vote and did not favour the Conservatives. This time around that segment of voters is three times larger and they make much stronger claims as to their intention to vote. The group contains a lot of younger voters who say they are motivated to vote. EKOS claims that if this group show up Harper could lose but if they don’t he could win.

EKOS also finds that there is much more interest in the election than in 2011. They also find that “values” rather than the economy has become a main issue. However, Harper recently appears to be attacking Trudeau on his economic policies. Along with EKOS, Canadians do not think that either the Conservatives or the Liberals will win a majority.The most recent Nanos poll was taken from October 9th to 11th. It shows the Conservatives with 28.9 percent of the vote, the Liberals at 35.7, and the NDP at 24.3, giving the Liberals a lead of over six points over the Tories.

CBC poll tracker averages up to October 11 show the Liberals leading at 34.2 percent of the vote. This is the largest gain from the last polls up 0.6 percent. The Conservatives were at 31.7, down marginally 0.1 percent. The NDP trailed at 23.4 percent down 0.4 percent. The seat projection averages show the Liberals getting the most seats at 134. The Conservative average was 119, and the NDP 80. The Bloc Quebecois averages four and the Green Party just one seat.The Conservatives are the only party whose maximum seats would gain a majority at 197, with 170 seats necessary for a majority. The Liberal lead is far too tiny to predict that the Liberals will win the most seats. The situation may be clearer later in the week.

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